After clinching a playoff berth on Thursday in a game that saw Shohei Ohtani record baseball’s first-ever 50 homer, 50 steal season, the Los Angeles Dodgers will trot out their “hangover” lineup on Friday at home against the Colorado Rockies.
With the pitching plan a question for L.A. and several starters likely to miss this one, my Rockies vs. Dodgers predictions believe the Rockies have a chance to keep it close.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, September 20.
Rockies vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Rockies +1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Dave Roberts never seems to make life easy on us and has once again given a very vague answer as to who will pitch in this one. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers locked up a playoff spot on Thursday, but they still have some work to do if they want to fend off the San Diego Padres for the division crown, so they can’t take this one all that lightly.
Still, Roberts indicated they’ll likely bring someone up from Triple-A to help out here, and with Justin Wrobleski working just three days ago the nod may go to rookie Ben Casparius who last pitched five days ago in relief down on the farm.
Casparius has now pitched 17 innings of three-run ball across his last four outings for Oklahoma City, struggling with some walks and relying on flyouts to continue his solid campaign down in the minors.
The Colorado Rockies have looked like a competent offense over the last week, hitting around the league average with a loud .193 Isolated Power and beefy 10.3% walk rate next to a slightly improved strikeout clip in the past week, which could present some issues here.
If it’s Casparius here, I love the matchup for Colorado who will feast on a player that’s struggled to limit walks and has pitched to a ton of contact in the air. On top of that, the Dodgers’ bullpen has fallen flat on its face this month with a 4.06 ERA to rank 19th in baseball, so no matter the plan here the Rockies should have a fair chance to keep up the hot hitting.
It’s a generally dicey proposition to back Kyle Freeland, who will get the ball for the visitors, but he’s at least thrown strikes once again this season and has a shot to disrupt an offense that loves to be patient and will probably be without several big names after celebrating a playoff berth on Thursday.
Freeland’s also been on a roll of late with a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings this month and just two homers against him, so with L.A. relying upon walks and power in the last seven days, this could be a sneaky spot to play the underdogs.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Oh to be that good at something
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We’re not even entirely sure Shohei Ohtani will suit up for this one after becoming the first member of the 50/50 club on Thursday, but if he does I’m still seeing a ton of value in his player props which are suspiciously well-priced.
Ohtani is 2-for-3 in his career against Freeland with a double and a homer, and while we’ve said some nice things about how hot the lefty is running that hasn’t prevented Ohtani from going off in the past.
The matchup against a player who fails to strike batters out at a high clip represents a good one for the big-swinging Ohtani, and in the month of September the NL MVP hopeful has posted an insane .340 Expected Batting Average and .657 Expected Slugging Percentage against southpaws.
He’s gone for two or more total bases three times in the last five games and should be able to do it again here.
Rockies vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Rockies +1.5
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 bases
Kyle Freeland 3+ strikeouts
As we target the Rockies while also believing in the bat of Ohtani, the odds on this same-game parlay will shoot up and allow us to take a juiced line on Freeland which should have a very fair chance of coming home given the ridiculously low bar he’ll have to clear.
Freeland’s reached three strikeouts in each of his last six starts, and since his first three starts of the season has hit this number in all but one of his next 16 outings.
The Dodgers haven’t been overly strikeout-prone of late, but have punched out in over 21% of plate appearances in the last week of play and will likely feature some bench hitters after clinching on Thursday. On top of that, Freeland’s longstanding ability to throw strikes should jive with a team that loves to take pitches and help him get to this number rather quickly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockies vs Dodgers odds
Rockies vs Dodgers live odds
Rockies vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Colorado +216 | Los Angeles -240
- Run line: Colorado +1.5 (+105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rockies vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as lofty -270 favorites here, and after taking a sudden jump up to -235 have slowly worked their way back down, sitting around -250 early Friday afternoon.
- A whopping 95% of the bets and 88% of the money is on the Dodgers to win over at DraftKings.
- The total opened at nine runs, almost instantly jumping to 9.5 and sitting there for hours until moving back to nine mid-day.
- While just 58% of the tickets are on the Over here, it’s accounted for 83% of the handle wagered on the total.
Rockies vs Dodgers trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+19.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Dodgers.
Rockies vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | COLR, SportsNet LA |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Kyle Freeland (5-7, 4.89 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Ben Casparius (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Rockies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Rockies vs Dodgers weather
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