NFL Week 3 is a bit of a homecoming for the newest member of the Houston Texans.
Stefon Diggs visits the Minnesota Vikings in a non-conference clash, and I believe the Texans receiver will have a breakout game against the team he played five seasons for to start his career.
I give out my best NFL picks and Texans vs. Vikings predictions for September 22 below.
Texans vs Vikings prediction
My best bet
Stefon Diggs Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud could be throwing a lot more “friendly balls” to Stefon Diggs in Week 3, given that the rushing attack is in shambles and the Texans could be down other top targets. Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are listed as questionable and WR Nico Collins is hobbled with a bad hip.
Diggs has been somewhat quiet in his first two games for Houston. He’s drawn six targets in both outings with the Bears and Colts, hauling in 10 of those dozen passes. Efforts of just 37 and 33 yards have stayed below Diggs’ respective receiving yard totals of 64.5 and 47.5 O/U. His player props for Week 3 have his receiving yards bar set at 49.5 Over/Under.
Collins has been Stroud’s top option in 2024, drawing 18 targets versus Diggs’ 12, and was back at practice in limited capacity on Thursday. Add in potential absences in TE Dalton Schultz and the pass-catching Mixon, and there are extra balls to go around — a surplus that should find its way to Diggs.
The former Bills WR is very familiar with Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his blitz-heavy zone schemes. During Flores’ time as head coach for the Miami Dolphins, he faced Diggs and the Bills four times with the speedy wideout amassing 329 totals yards on 24 catches (13.7 yards per catch) along with three touchdowns.
While Diggs has undoubtedly lost a step since then, prop projections for Week 3 are positive. Models all sit above his total of 49.5 yards, ranging from 53 yards to a high flirting with 60 yards receiving. My number for Diggs is just south of 56 yards through the air. It should be noted, those forecasts don’t reflect the uptick in targets that could come Diggs’ way if those other skill players sit out.
The Vikings defense has looked very sound in the opening weeks of 2024, leaning into the pass rush to disrupt opposing QBs. That said, one of those games came against Daniel Jones and the Giants, and the other saw the Vikes give up 319 yards to Brock Purdy and the 49ers, who hit plenty of plays of 20+ yards.
Minnesota has allowed seven passing plays of 20 or more yards on the season and if there’s one thing Vikings fan know about Diggs, it’s that he can hit the home run. With a receiving yard total this low, the newest Texan could take a chunk out of that prop in one play.
Texans vs Vikings same-game parlay
Stefon Diggs Over 49.5 receiving yards
Sam Darnold Over 32.5 pass attempts
Vikings +2
Diggs would love nothing more than to burn his former club for big gains and his projections all call for more than 50 yards through the air.
Sam Darnold could find himself in a shootout. Luckily, he should have his two top WRs on the field. Models call for 35.5 pass attempts in Week 3 as he won’t be playing with a second half lead like in the past two weeks.
I like the Vikings pass rush to disrupt Houston, forcing some game-changing plays from an offense that could be one-dimensional with no rushing attack.
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Texans vs Vikings odds
Texans vs Vikings live odds
Texans vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Houston -3.5 | Minnesota +3.5
- Moneyline: Houston -165 | Minnesota +140
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
• Look-ahead lines from the offseason had Houston as a 3.5-point road favorite in Minnesota for Week 3. But after the Vikings’ surprise 2-0 start to the season, including a strong win over San Francisco, the Texans officially opened as -3 favorites last Sunday night.
• From there, early play on the Vikings knocked this spread off the key number to Minnesota +2.5 and more money has trickled in on the Vikes over the week, slimming the spread to +2 with injuries to Houston’s rushing attack prompting that opinion.
• The Over/Under opened at 46.5 points and money on the Under has trimmed the total to 45.5 O/U at most shops. Injuries to the Vikings’ WR corps have been the status to watch in Week 3, with star Justin Jefferson battling through a quad injury and fellow wideout Jordan Addison missing Week 2 with a bum ankle. Both receivers practiced in limited capacity Wednesday while running back Aaron Jones was also limited in practice with a hip injury.
• The Texans also have injuries stacking up at their skill positions. Collins missed some practice time with a hip injury but was back Thursday and Schultz was limited as well. Mixon and Pierce missed practice Thursday and are questionable for Sunday.
Texans vs Vikings betting trend to know
Minnesota is 6-4 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in non-conference games under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Vikings.
Texans vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texans vs Vikings latest injuries
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