The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox are battling for AL wild-card berths and begin their three-game set tonight at Fenway Park.
Both clubs send rookie hurlers to the hill, and my Twins vs. Red Sox prediction expects Minny righty David Festa’s recent run of short outings (and low counting stats) to continue.
Read on to see why Festa falling short of his strikeout prop is among my best MLB picks for September 20.
Twins vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
David Festa Under 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox bats are set to heat up, and Minnesota Twins righty David Festa is just the pitcher to help kick-start their statistical correction.
Boston sports the fifth-lowest BABIP (.270) over the past 30 days despite ranking sixth in barrel percentage (9.3%) and 10th in hard-hit rate (40.3%), and Festa is showing signs of wearing down: He’s already surpassed his prior career-high innings count and his velocity is down over his past seven starts, per FanGraphs.
Additionally, he’s walking more batters over that span, with his 9.9 BB% and 3.82 BB/9 during the stretch well above his respective 5.8% and 2.22 marks through his first five appearances.
A 38.3% hard-hit rate has also led to Festa fanning five or fewer hitters in four of those seven outings and failing to go beyond five innings six times. He's averaging just 77.4 pitches per start in that span, with a rocky 4.70 ERA.
The elephant in the room (or Boston dugout) is that the Red Sox are prone to strikeouts. Still, Fenway Park has been kind to the home team and the Sox have been solid against right-handed pitchers all season — it boasts a solid .323 wOBA at home and ranks fifth with a .325 mark against righties for the year.
Festa is going to generate swings and misses, but he’s not going to pitch deep enough into Friday’s game to go Over the number tonight.
Twins vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5 runs
David Festa Under 5.5 strikeouts
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
It’s been smooth sailing through two starts for Boston righty Richard Fitts, but Minny’s set to rock the boat Friday. Fitts hasn’t allowed a run through 10 2/3 innings but his .235 BABIP and 83.3% strand rate are unsustainable. He pitched to a 4.17 ERA, with respective .291 and 74.6% marks in Triple-A, and the Twins enter with an eighth-ranked .319 wOBA against righties for the year.
In addition to Festa struggling to cool the Sox, I’m also anticipating Fitts having struggles with the Minnesota lineup.
Turning to Rafael Devers, he sports an elite .405 wOBA and .312 ISO against righties that respectively rank fifth and third among qualified hitters. Additionally, while he’s skidding along a 4-for-30 run at the dish, his .222 BABIP, 11.1 barrel percentage and 44.4% hard-hit rate reinforce it’s just been a good run of bad luck for the proven slugger.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Red Sox odds
Twins vs Red Sox live odds
Twins vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota -120 | Boston +100
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 | Boston +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Twins vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a small move to the Minny side of this moneyline at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- I suspect it’s because the Boston bats haven’t packed as much punch due to the low BABIP over the past 30 days, in addition to the inexperience of Fitts.
- While this total has dropped from 9.0 to 8.5 at both shops, the Over is still carrying the higher vig.
- Two inexperienced pitchers against capable offenses screams Over 8.5, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the number bounced back — even with the wind forecasted to be briskly blowing in.
Twins vs Red Sox trend
David Festa has failed to top five strikeouts in three of his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox.
Twins vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, NESN |
| Twins starting pitcher: | David Festa (2-6, 5.07 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Richard Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Twins vs Red Sox latest injuries
Twins vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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