The Detroit Tigers are the hottest team in baseball. They enter play riding a four-game winning streak and on a league-best 8-2 run. This stretch has seen them surge up the standings and — at least temporarily — grab hold of the final playoff spot in the AL.
My Tigers vs. Orioles predictions see Detroit continuing to build on their recent form and hanging tough with a quality Baltimore team.
Let’s dive into why with my MLB picks for Friday, September 20.
Tigers vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Tigers +1.5 (-143 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Keeping a game against Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles close is certainly a daunting task on the surface. However, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Detroit Tigers can do just that.
They have crushed right-handed pitchers this month, posting the league’s fourth highest xwOBA while also ranking Top-10 in batting average and OPS.
The Tigers should be able to cause some problems for Burnes, whom they faced less than a week ago. Burnes got the better of the Tigers but that game — and the ability to see Burnes’ stuff up close and personal — will give them a better idea of what to do (and what to avoid doing) this time around.
Baltimore is also in poor form offensively right now. They’re hitting just .222 in September (the sixth-lowest average in the MLB) and their 5.3% barrel rate slots them ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox. They are not hitting for average or making good enough contact to generate power.
I don’t expect that to change against the Tigers. Although they don’t have a marquee name to throw on the bump today, they are pitching extremely well by committee.
They have conceded only 45 runs through 16 games this month — third-fewest in the MLB — and their bullpen is a big reason why. Tigers relievers have allowed a barrel rate of only 3.3% in September, by far the best mark league-wide.
The Tigers should be able to limit a struggling Orioles offense in this game, giving them a great chance of keeping the final score within a run.
Tigers vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Tigers +1.5
Riley Greene Over 0.5 hits
Under 11.5 (alt. total)
Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last 10 games. He is hitting .283 against righties on the season and should be a tough out for Burnes and the O's relievers.
The Tigers have won a lot of games on the back of quality pitching of late. I like their chances of continuing that success against an Orioles team in a rut at the dish. On the flip side, Burnes has held opponents to three runs or fewer in 16 of his last 20 starts. Win or lose, he should keep the Tigers' offense to a manageable number.
I don’t see much of a recipe for offensive fireworks in this game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Orioles odds
Tigers vs Orioles live odds
Tigers vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +172 | Baltimore -188
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-129) | Baltimore -1.5 (+117)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Tigers vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Even with the Orioles’ ace on the mound, we’ve seen the moneyline shift drastically towards the Tigers. They opened +172 at Pinnacle and now sit with a +145 price tag.
- The total has shifted a tad towards the Over. bet365 opened -115 for Over 7.5 and is currently priced at -120.
- The Tigers have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 66 games (+22.85 Units / 26% ROI).
- The Tigers have hit the Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI). They’ve played in a lot of tight, low-scoring games lately, and I think we'll see another one tonight.
Tigers vs Orioles trend
Riley Greene has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games, piling up 12 in total. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Orioles.
Tigers vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | TBD |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (14-8, 3.06 ERA) |
Tigers vs Orioles latest injuries
Tigers vs Orioles weather
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