It's Patrick Mahomes indoors in prime time. How can you not be excited for Sunday Night Football?
The Kansas City Chiefs are fresh off dispatching the Bengals in Week 2 and travel to Atlanta as 3-point favorites to take on Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, who are also coming off a big comeback win in Week 2. It's back-to-back weeks of Cousins under the lights!
With the Chiefs' running game in flux thanks to the Isiah Pacheco injury, Mahomes could be airing it out a lot indoors. That has me reaching for any props tied to the visitor's passing game.
It's going to be a big night for the MVP frontrunner, and I dig deeper into Mahomes' passing output in my Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks for September 22.
For even more Mahomes analysis, check out Shawn Wronka's Patrick Mahomes props!
Chiefs vs Falcons SNF prediction
My best bet
Patrick Mahomes Over 264.5 passing yards (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Patrick Mahomes has played just 10 games indoors during the regular season over his career and the numbers are wild. He is a perfect 10-0 SU, has a 23-2 TD-INT ratio, and averages a whopping 314.5 passing yards per game. I really think books struggle to price indoor prop totals, as the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback had a closing total of 271.5 last week vs. the Bengals and 268.5 in the opener vs. the Ravens.
We released this Over on NFL Prop Picks Powered by THE BLITZ on Thursday as the projections have Mahomes throwing for Over 300 yards on Sunday night vs. a questionable Atlanta Falcons defense that allowed a 75.6% completion rate vs. Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts. If this game doesn't get lopsided, Mahomes is going to have a big game through the air.
The K.C. run game is in a tough spot with Carson Steele likely being the early-down back. The backfield's strength in Week 3 is in the passing game with Samaje Perine getting the passing-down role. I love all of Perine's receiving Overs, but Mahomes' cast of weapons is as expansive as it has ever been.
THE BLITZ usually hates big star-player Overs, but Mahomes seems to be the exception. Passing and QB output is down to begin the year but Andy Reid's defense has been seeing two-high safeties longer than any other offense. It's a high pass-rate offense that has running back injuries, is indoors, and is facing a bottom-tier defense in a non-conference game.
This is going to be a big night from the greatest QB in the game.
Chiefs vs Falcons SNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards
Samaje Perine 25+ receiving yards
Bijan Robinson anytime TD
Mahomes is projected for 304.5 passing yards while Perine projects to land 29.4 receiving yards. Getting those two milestones in the SGP at better than coin-flip odds was an easy decision.
Perine is going to get the passing-down role as Steele gets the early-down rushes. Former Cardinal and current Chiefs third-string RB Keontay Ingram piled up just eight catches over 20 games with Arizona. Perine could put up five catches as Andy Reid tries to offset the running game with shorter passes.
Bijan Robinson is an add that boosts the previous +500 pairing to +1,000 for a TD prop that is paying -125 as a single. Robinson is one of the highest-usage backs in football and gouged another defense in Week 2, picking up his second straight 100+ total-yard game.
The Chiefs will try to take him out of this tilt, but his role in both the rushing and passing game make it almost impossible. Backup RB Tyler Allgeier is also nursing a hip injury.
If you want to take Mahomes' and Perine's straight Overs instead of the milestones, the two-leg SGP is +425.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Falcons odds
Chiefs vs Falcons live odds
Chiefs vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -4.5 | Atlanta +4.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -220 | Atlanta +180
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of bet365
Chiefs vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
- K.C. was -4.5 on the lookahead but Atlanta money has moved this to as short as -3 for the visitors. Some of that has to do with the loss of Pacheco and the blow to the Chiefs running game.
- The total has also moved this week after opening at 47, getting as high as 47.5 before Week 2 then hitting a low of 46.5 this week.
- The Chiefs' last loss came back on Christmas Day vs. the Raiders. Since then, they are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS with the only non-cover coming last week vs. the Bengals as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS across their last eight home games dating back to last season.
- There is nothing big in terms of Atlanta injuries this week on SNF as all the Falcons were at practice on Thursday with only DL James Smith-Williams being limited. He is a depth player who has been getting more snaps of late.
Chiefs vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Chiefs have hit the 4Q Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 67% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Falcons.
Chiefs vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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