The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins in the first matchup of this four-game series at Progressive Field. MLB odds list Cleveland as a -115 favorite, while the total sits at eight.
My Twins vs. Guardians predictions target the total in this AL Central matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for this Monday, April 28 matchup, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My Twins vs Guardians best bet: Over 8 (-105 at Caesars)
Right-hander Bailey Ober takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. Through five starts, Ober owns a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
The good news for Ober is he should receive plenty of run support, as Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams gets the ball.
Like Ober, Williams has struggled this season. He sports a 4.15 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through five starts, and his analytics look even worse.
Williams owns a 5.27 xERA and ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, and barrel rate. Furthermore, this current Minnesota lineup has generated positive underlying metrics against Williams.
Through 28 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Twins roster boasts a .274 xBA and .348 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
Finally, the weather favors the total going over, as the forecast calls for winds blowing out directly toward center field during the game.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Carlos Correa Over 0.5 RBI
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBI
If we’re backing this total to go Over, then each team needs to push some runs across the plate. There may not be two better candidates to do so than Carlos Correa and Jose Ramirez.
Correa has been seeing the ball well, recording three RBI over his past three games, boasting a .545 batting average over that stretch.
Meanwhile, Ramirez has a tremendous track record against Ober. Through 21 plate appearances against the right-hander, he owns a .316 batting average, a .579 slugging percentage, and a .409 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
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Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota +100 | Cleveland -120
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+162) | Cleveland +1.5 (-196)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-130) | Under 7.5 (+110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Twins vs Guardians trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in nine of Cleveland’s past 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians.
How to watch Twins vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Monday, 4-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MNMT, CLEG |
| Twins starting pitcher | Bailey Ober (2-1, 5.04 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (2-1, 4.15 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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