The Green Bay Packers take on the Tennessee Titans in NFL betting action this afternoon.
Green Bay pulled off the upset with Malik Willis at quarterback last week, but my Packers vs. Titans predictions for Week 3 are counting on his luck to run out.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this September 22 contest.
Packers vs Titans prediction
My best bet
Titans -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Don't be scared off by Jordan Love practicing for the Green Bay Packers this week, since books seem convinced he won't suit up. He was initially expected to miss 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and oddsmakers have stuck to the Titans as faves, with the line only briefly slimming to -1.5 on Wednesday when Love said he was "hopeful" to play. The line quickly moved back to Titans -2.5, and I'd take them at anything under a field goal.
Teams that begin the year 0-2 straight up have a strong tendency to cover against 1-1 teams in Week 3 due to books under-valuing them after a slow start. Likewise, we've seen the public overreact in the first week when a backup QB takes over for an injured starter. If that team outperforms expectations in that initial week, the market settles, providing opportunity on the other side.
The Packers won last week with Malik Willis under center, and he was an efficient 12-of-14 for 122 yards. However, he wasn't asked to do much since Green Bay ran the ball a whopping 53 times for 261 yards and the Colts didn't adjust their defensive gameplan.
On the other hand, the Tennessee Titans have big bodies up front and they should be able to stack the box and force Willis to beat them through the air. The Titans defense has played extremely well this year, holding the Bears to just 148 net yards in Week 1 before limiting the Jets to 265 yards last week.
Tennessee could very well be 2-0 were it not for a couple of boneheaded plays from quarterback Will Levis and mistakes on special teams. The Titans are near the bottom of the NFL in luck ratings but that should turn around and lead to a cover here.
Packers vs Titans same-game parlay
Titans -2.5
Tony Pollard Over 60.5 rushing yards
Under 38
The Packers have surrendered 142 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry through the first two weeks. That bodes well for Tony Pollard, who the Titans signed in the offseason after back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns with Dallas. Pollard rushed for 82 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 and had 62 yards on 17 carries last week. He could see an even bigger workload on Sunday since backup RB Tijae Spears is dealing with an ankle injury.
Willis has been abysmal when given a chance; in four career starts, his teams have never scored more than 17 points. Don't expect Green Bay's offense to have much success, but Tennessee's attack hasn't looked any better despite a new play-caller and upgrades at the skill positions. The Titans are 27th in the league in EPA/play and have been held to 17 points in both contests this year.
With poor QB play on both sides and a pair of offenses that will rely on their ground games, the Under makes sense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Packers vs Titans odds
Packers vs Titans live odds
Packers vs Titans opening odds
- Spread: Green Bay +2.5 | Tennessee -2.5
- Moneyline: Green Bay +120 | Tennessee -140
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 | Under 37.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Packers vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead line for this game with Love at QB had the Packers at -4 but flipped to favor the Titans at -2.5 following his injury.
- The total opened at 37.5 and dropped to 36.5 before buyback on the Over pushed it back to 38.
- Levis has thrown for just 319 yards and he has the second-lowest passing grade at PFF among 38 qualifying QBs.
- The Packers won 16-10 last week as 2.5-point home dogs while the Titans have lost their first two games by identical 24-17 scores despite leading at half both times.
Packers vs Titans betting trend to know
Since 2010, teams that start out 0-2 SU are 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Titans.
Packers vs Titans game info
| Location: | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Packers vs Titans latest injuries
Packers vs Titans weather
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