UL Monroe vs Texas NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Hook 'Em Horns, Manning

Arch Manning makes his highly anticipated debut start for the Texas Longhorns against the UL Monroe Warhawks tonight.

Despite lofty expectations stemming from big numbers put up in relief of injured Quinn Ewers last week, my UL Monroe vs. Texas predictions expect Manning to stay true to that form.

My college football picks break down why Manning and the Longhorns will run up the score early on Saturday, September 21.

UL Monroe vs Texas prediction

My best bet
Texas -27.5 1H (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Last week against UTSA, Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers went down with an abdominal injury, and we got to see the first real game action from the future of the Manning quarterback family, Arch Manning. Unlike uncles Peyton and Eli, Arch is a true dual-threat quarterback and he showed off his legs with a 67-yard rushing touchdown. 

After that big run, he added 51-yard and 75-yard passing touchdowns that showed off his arm. Manning was 9-for-12 for 223 passing yards and four touchdowns to go along with his long rushing major. Now he will get his first start against a team that was projected to finish dead last in the Sun Belt. 

The UL Monroe Warhawks are 2-0 with an average score of 31-10, but those two games were against an FCS team and a UAB team that may have been caught looking ahead to Arkansas. The Warhawks are now heading on the road for the first time this season and they get the number one team in the nation. That defense is going to get a whole new level of test on Saturday. 

The Warhawks may have scored 31 points per game in their first two contests, but they did not do it through the air. Quarterback General Booty has only 191 yards passing through two games and that is not going to cut it against this Texas offense. They can run the ball well, but Texas only allows 109.3 rushing yards per game and already faced a strong rushing offense in Michigan. 

The full-game spread is a bit too high for my liking, so I will stick with the first-half spread. Texas has dominated the first half of their three games this season with a total score of 83-10. I really like their chances to win the first half against possibly their worst opponent of the season so far by 28 or more points

Arch Manning odds & pick: Lives up to the hype

My best bet
Arch Manning Over 26.5 rushing yards

My analysis

This line just seems low considering what we have seen from Manning’s legs in both his high school career and limited action we have seen from him at Texas. Yes, he did get sacked twice last week and those sacks do take away from your rushing yard total in college stats. However, he can easily knock this prop out in one run where sacks won’t be an issue.

ULM has shown good signs of pressuring the quarterback in their first two games, granted they were against much lesser opponents. They have seven sacks in their two games. While that may seem like a bad thing for this prop, I am looking at it a different way.

If Manning is under pressure, he will not be afraid to take off. If he has a clean pocket, he will likely stay in there and deliver strikes to his targets. I do not expect many, if any, called run plays for Arch. Therefore, the pressure should help us get this number because if he scrambles, he will most likely break out a long one to hit this prop.

UL Monroe vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)

Combining the best bet with our Manning prop gets us to +226 right off the bat. Next, we'll take Arch to throw at least three touchdowns. He threw four in mop-up duty last week and now he gets the start. 

Finally, we will finish this off with Booty to go Under his passing total. It is extremely low at 75.5, but he only has 191 yards through two games against much lesser opponents. Texas only allows 136.0 passing yards per game and I could see a situation in which Booty fails to complete any passes early and they surrender late so his opportunity will be down.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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UL Monroe vs Texas odds

UL Monroe vs Texas live odds

UL Monroe vs Texas opening odds

• Spread: UL Monroe +45 (-110) | Texas -45 (-110)
• Moneyline: UL Monroe OTB | Texas OTB
• Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

UL Monroe vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread opened at Texas -48 but has shifted down to Texas -44.5 as of Friday afternoon.
• Last season, Texas covered the spread of 36.5, winning by 42 points against ULM. 
• The total opened at 52.5 and has steadily stayed around that number.
• Last season, this matchup produced 62 points and went Under the total of 64. 

UL Monroe vs Texas betting trend to know

Texas has covered the spread in six of its last eight games at home and UL Monroe has only covered the 1H spread in four of its last 10 games. Find more college football betting trends for UL Monroe vs Texas.

UL Monroe vs Texas game info

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