It’s been a tough season for both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, these American League East basement-dwellers begin their final season series at the Trop on Friday night.
There have been a lot of positives for the Jays in the second half, and they would love to open this series with a win. My Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions think handing the ball to Jose Berrios is a good start.
The Jays starter is both dealing and has dominated the Rays, highlighting my MLB picks for September 20.
Blue Jays vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays -0.5 five-inning runline (+115 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
If you had told Toronto Blue Jays fans before the season that the Tampa Bay Rays would be under .500 and in fourth place in the American League East, they probably would have taken that every day of the week.
But at what cost? Well, unfortunately, the Blue Jays are in last place. So, a lot apparently. Basement-dwelling aside, there have been a lot of positives for Toronto following the trade deadline.
The Jays have given more at-bats to their young position players, and the guys who are still in the rotation have pitched well. Maybe none more so than Jose Berrios.
The 30-year-old right-hander had plenty of highs and lows in the first half of the season, but he has locked in since the start of August. Berrios is pitching to a 1.51 ERA and limiting opponents to a .188 batting average and a .535 OPS over his last seven starts.
And a locked-in Berrios isn't something the Rays want to see. Berrios owns a 2.78 ERA and is holding Rays batters to a.198 batting average over his last four starts against Tampa Bay.
The Rays counter Berrios with Tyler Alexander. The left-hander has been in a bit of a slump, pitching to a 6.59 ERA while surrendering a .886 OPS to opponents over his last six appearances. Kevin Cash likely has Alexander making the start because this young Toronto lineup has struggled a little more against southpaws.
But Alexander has been giving up so much hard contact lately that I’m not sure that should matter too much. And it’s not just that the Blue Jays have improved — they've been one of the best lineups in baseball since the trade deadline.
Toronto ranks ninth in batting average, seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+ since Aug. 1. I’m betting they do enough to stake Berrios to an early lead and he’ll carry that lead through five innings. As always, avoid the full-game moneyline because the Blue Jays bullpen is still leaks like a sieve.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
I must sound like a broken record at this point. But let me say it again:
We will keep betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBIs as long as sportsbooks keep giving us value.
And, would you look? They did so once again for this opener against the Rays.
The Blue Jays star first baseman drove in another two runs thanks to a pair of solo home runs last night. He's now hitting .322 with a .951 OPS, 30 dingers, and 99 RBI for the season. It was also the ninth time in the last 15 games that Vladdy has driven in at least one run.
Now, a quick look at his numbers vs. Alexander and you might be scared away. Guerrero is just 2-15 in his career vs. the Rays’ lefty, but the advanced numbers say Vladdy has been pretty unlucky in this matchup.
Despite just two hits, one of which is a home run, Guerrero has a .330 expected batting average and a .604 expected slugging in those at-bats. So, Vladdy has been hitting the ball hard off Alexander, just right at people.
Guerrero is also crushing lefties this season, hitting .313 with a .975 OPS. So, with another good price, I’m backing Vladdy to get another RBI tonight.
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Blue Jays vs Rays odds
Blue Jays vs Rays live odds
Blue Jays vs Rays opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Tampa Bay -110
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -220 | Tampa Bay -1.5 +185
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This AL East matchup opened as basically a coin flip with both sides listed at -110 and there hasn't been much notable action on the moneyline to this point.
- With the way Berrios is pitching, I believe there is some value in the Blue Jays at this price.
- The total hit the board at 7.5, but some 8s are starting to pop up on the board as of Friday afternoon.
- I would lean Under at the even 8.0. Berrios has not only been excellent lately, but pitching deep into games as well, limting the number of innings required from a sketcky Blue Jays bullpen. While Alexander has struggled the Jays have had some issues with left-handers of late.
Blue Jays vs Rays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 38 of their last 57 away games for +13.05 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays.
Blue Jays vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Sun |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (16-9, 3.44 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Tyler Alexander (6-5, 5.58 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Rays latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Rays weather
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