Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not reach the same conclusion as I do, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Friday, October 11.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 11
Darvish Under 2.5 earned runs (-125)
Today’s best SP angles
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Yu Darvish can throw up donuts or have a short leash; there are multiple paths to his Unders.
With everything on the line, Yu Darvish is either going to twirl a gem and get deep or have a shorter outing as the San Diego Padres look to use the rested bullpen. Either way, his Unders project well tonight in the deciding game vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Darvish went seven innings in Game 2 allowing one run on three hits but also had to get deep as San Diego used five relievers in Game 1 after Dylan Cease lasted just 10 outs. That came on the heels of using those same guys for a full workload in Game 2 vs. Atlanta just two days earlier.
There will be plenty of blueprints as to how the Padres want to manage Darvish, and most of them point to low hits and runs allowed.
I have to tip the cap to Joe Osborne, who dropped this same play on Before You Bet at Noon today, but Under 2.5 earned runs is the best angle to bet this at -125. Darvish's Under 4.5 hits allowed looks great with a projection of 4.3, but that prop is also -155.
The Under 2.5 earned runs is -125. This prop also gives you the benefit of earned runs vs. actual runs, which can sometimes come in handy.
I don't see tonight being a 7-6 game as both teams will leave nothing on the field in terms of talent coming out of the bullpen. Darvish will only go deep if he is dealing and he might have a cap of just five innings. It's a big number and one I'm happy to pay up to 40 points on.
The move: Yu Darvish Under 2.5 earned runs (-125 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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