We're coming off a 3-0 Thursday as I faded the pitchers in Baltimore. The more I talk, the more the lines move. Let's get right to it.
These are my favorite MLB picks and pitcher props for Friday, April 4.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 4
Luzardo Under 16.5 outs recorded (-130 at DraftKings)
Pfaadt Over 17.5 outs recorded (-120 at bet365)
Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at BetMGM)
Today's SP best bets
Dodgers vs. Phillies
The angle: Jesus Luzardo is not an efficient pitcher and now faces the Dodgers.
The move: Jesus Luzardo Under 16.5 outs recorded (-130 at DraftKings)
This number is juiced to the Under at 16.5, and if it gets any lower, take the u15.5 at even money. There is not much difference between the two numbers.
Jesus Luzardo needed 95 pitches in his season debut to get just 15 outs. The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw struck out 11 batters, but that's his M/O. He now uses more pitches per batter and faces a tough Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, which has seen just one opposing starter record more than 15 outs and none reach 18.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
The angle: Brandon Pfaadt has elite command and should have quick at-bats vs. the Nationals.
The move: Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 outs recorded (-120 at bet365)
Brandon Pfaadt has become one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks starter doesn't fall behind in counts and gets through batters in three to five pitches.
He reached 18 outs in his last start and needed just 78 pitches over 25 batters. That's 3.12 pitches per batter for six innings!
The right-hander boasts elite command, which helps keep his pitch count in check against a Washington Nationals team that rarely walks and strikes out at a high rate. Play this to -135.
Mariners vs. Giants
The angle: The Mariners are back to their swing-and-miss ways, and Verlander can get six punchies at plus money.
The move: Justin Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at BetMGM)
THE BAT projects 5.88 Ks over 92 pitches. Justin Verlander looked good in his opening start, getting five Ks over 15 outs and 83 pitches vs. the Reds. He finished with a 12.1 Swing K% and should thrive against a Seattle Mariners club that is striking out at a 27.5% rate.
Verlander may be up there in age, but he’s looked sharp so far for the San Francisco Giants, racking up 24 punchouts over 26 innings (including spring training).
Not intended for use in MA.
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