Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, September 25.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 25
Kirby u4.5 strikeouts (+125)
Littell o4.5 strikeouts (+120)
Gausman o1.5 walks allowed (+150)
Today’s best SP angles
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
The angle: George Kirby has only racked up Ks vs. poor opponents of late.
George Kirby's strikeout rate has fallen over his last 11 starts where he has just 51 Ks over 61+ innings of work. He is 5-6 O/U on his 4.5 K total across that stretch but has hit the Over on some poor teams in Oakland, Pittsburgh, Detroit (x2), and the White Sox. The Seattle Mariners starter has hit this Under in three straight games and might not have the leash to go deep today.
Kirby has tossed more than 85 pitches just once in his last five starts and sits at 185 IP after a high of 190 2/3 set last season.
The Mariners are also 2.5 games back of the wild card and if Kirby is faltering, there is no room to let him get beat up. Seattle could be eliminated from the playoffs today if they lose and KC and Detroit win.
The move: George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers
The angle: Zack Littell is paying plus money for 5+ Ks in a great K% matchup and his leash might be underestimated.
Zack Littell threw just 75 pitches in his last start but went 21 outs and struck out seven batters. He hit the Over 4.5 in the start before that, as well, and that came against the Guardians, who are the best K% team in baseball.
The Tampa Bay Rays pitcher will have a 90-pitch leash today vs. the Detroit Tigers, who have a 28% K% over the last two weeks, which is the third-highest in the league. Covers' projections sit at 4.55 Ks for the starter with THE BAT expecting 84 pitches, which is on the low end in my opinion.
This is a buy to +110 for me. I love the Tigers' magic right now, but they have a lot of swing-and-miss within their bats and struck out 12 times last night with Ryan Pepiot accounting for six over 15 outs.
The move: Zack Littell Over 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
The angle: Kevin Gausman is having command issues and his recent back tightness isn't going to help that.
Kevin Gausman is paying a hefty +150 to walk more than one batter today which is something he has done in nine of his last 11 games. He was lifted after just 58 pitches in his last start during a no-hitter due to back tightness but he should go longer today. Even if he doesn't, it will be the back issue that keeps him short and that ailment isn't going to help the command issues.
Over those 11 starts, Gausman has a 55:26 K:BB ratio over 71 innings. It's the worst run of BB/9 of his season and it has been a very profitable bet for a pitcher who has seen his K rate drop dramatically this year.
The BB matchup is also great as the Red Sox are walking at a Top-10 rate over the last 14 and 30 days. Gausman is 5-1 to the Over on this plus-money prop at home since the All-Star break.
The move: Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 walks allowed (+150 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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