The Arizona Diamondbacks (46-47) look to earn a split as their four-game series with the visiting Atlanta Braves (51-40) concludes Thursday night.
There’s an intriguing starting pitching matchup between Atlanta’s Max Friend and Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt that my Braves vs. Diamondbacks prediction is focusing on.
See why my MLB picks for Thursday, July 11 have a pitcher’s duel on deck.
Braves vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The last time Max Fried faced the Arizona Diamondbacks, he was tagged for eight runs (seven earned) on 10 hits and a walk in 4 1-3 IP. Not only is that the most runs he’s surrendered in a start this season, it’s also the most he’s surrendered since April 13, 2021.
In Fried’s eight-year career, he’s allowed eight runs just twice in 156 trips to the mound. That, folks, is what we like to call an anomaly.
I’m fine writing off his previous disastrous performance, especially since it came back on April 6, and he was clearly still ramping up to speed. It was his second start of the year, and he didn’t make it out of the first inning in his 2024 debut.
The southpaw has been fine since and now sports a 3.18 ERA and 3.50 FIP. He has a long track record of success, as his ERA finished at 2.25 in 2020, 3.04 in 2021, 2.48 in 2022, and 2.55 a year ago.
On the flip side, second-year man Brandon Pfaadt gets the call for the snakes. He’s been superb lately, surrendering just two combined earned runs in his last two starts while striking out 14.
He left his last start after only 4 1-3 IP after being struck on the ankle by a comebacker, but he appears fine after going through his normal routines and appearing on the standard four days of rest. I’m anticipating no ill effects, and he could even be more well-rested after tossing just 62 pitches in his last start.
The Atlanta Braves have been far from fearsome against RHP, ranking 25th in wRC+ (86) and 26th in wOBA (.292) over the last 15 days. Their lineup has fallen well short of expectations this year at 33-53 O/U, and I fancy yet another Under coming through with two effective starting pitchers on the bump.
Braves vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Brandon Pfaadt 6+ strikeouts
Diamondbacks moneyline
Pfaadt has recorded at least five strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts. This is a fine matchup against an Atlanta lineup with the third-highest K rate (26%) against RHP in the last 15 days, so it’s reasonable to expect Pfaadt to accumulate 6+ punchouts.
The Bellarmine product has been stellar at home with a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and his team has won four straight starts when he’s on the mound at Chase Field. The Braves are nothing special on the road (22-23) so I’ll snap up the slight plus money on Arizona’s moneyline as it attempts to even up this four-game series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Diamondbacks odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks live odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+115) | Arizona +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -135 | Arizona +115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Braves vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have found success lately with their respective starting pitchers: Arizona has won four of Pfaadt’s last five starts, while Atlanta is 6-3 in Fried’s last nine.
- Atlanta has typically gotten the better of this matchup, winning seven of the last 10 against Arizona.
- Atlanta has cashed the Under in 45 of its last 69 games.
Braves vs Diamondbacks trend
Atlanta is 4-11 O/U in Fried’s last 15 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Braves vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, ARID |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (7-4, 3.18 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (3-6, 4.19 ERA) |
Braves vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Braves vs Diamondbacks weather
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