The Chicago Cubs can pull off the road sweep with a win over the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards tonight, and the Cubbies have scorching-hot Justin Steele heading to the mound to finish the job.
Despite being the second-highest-scoring team in baseball, the Orioles have been limited to just two runs through the first two games of the series. My Cubs vs. Orioles predictions wonder if the Baltimore bats are ripe to heat up or if Steele will continue his sterling stretch.
Find out with our free MLB picks for today's series finale.
Cubs vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs (+132 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The bats have been quiet for the Baltimore Orioles through two games against the visiting Chicago Cubs, but the Orange Birds being held in check for three straight isn’t in the cards given their track record against lefties.
Baltimore boasts a third-ranked .341 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against southpaws, and the Orioles have five hitters in their lineup well above those marks: Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, and Anthony Santander.
Justin Steele has been sharp while pitching at least six innings seven of his past eight starts. He’s cruised to a 1.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian .186 batting average and .245 BABIP. It’s 100% clear he’s back at full health following the Opening-Day hamstring injury that cost him all of April.
Still, even when he took a run at the NL Cy Young award last season, he posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while allowing a .248 batting average and .317 BABIP. There’s a splash of statistical correction coming for Steele, and the Os have the bats to kickstart it.
Additionally, this sets up as Steele’s final start of the first half, and the Cubs bullpen hasn’t been busy against Baltimore with Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga each firing six frames to start the series. With the potential to sweep the Orioles, I wouldn’t be surprised if manager Craig Counsell went to the ‘pen early if Steele's pitch count climbs and the Orioles bats heat up as expected. Plus, even though it only took 95 pitches, Steele did toss his first career complete game last time out.
Finally, I also value that this is a five-star MLB player prop based on our free projections.
Cubs vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Justin Steele Under 17.5 outs
Over 8.5
As discussed, I expect the Orioles offense to show up. I also value that Baltimore is the betting favorite with early movement to the Orioles moneyline across the board.
Additionally, Orioles starter Albert Suarez has overachieved and the Cubs are heating up at the dish during their 5-1 stretch with 5.5 runs per game. Suarez’s 2.48 ERA is shiny but his lackluster 4.65 xFIP ranks 131st among 151 pitchers with at least 50 innings this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Orioles odds
Cubs vs Orioles live odds
Cubs vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | Baltimore -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Chicago +110 | Baltimore -130
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Cubs vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- I’m not convinced the noted early action on the Baltimore moneyline is the sharp move considering Suarez's statistical shortcomings. There is room for Steele to have a poor start relative to his sterling run, and for the Cubs to also outscore the Orioles.
- This total does have my attention, though, because a short move to the Under has been followed by Over action.
- Pinnacle moved from its opening 9.0 number (+104/-117) to 8.5, but it didn’t last, and the shop is back at its opening line as of Thursday morning. There has been similar movement at bet365, too.
Cubs vs Orioles trend
Baltimore has played to the Over in 24 of its last 45 games (+6.70 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Orioles
Cubs vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, MASN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48 ERA) |
Cubs vs Orioles latest injuries
Cubs vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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