Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want, if you're betting pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
There are a handful of pitchers coming off season-highs in pitches and one Over is really standing out with a stretched out Cody Bradford.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, August 15.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: August 15
Quintana u17.5 outs (+115)
Flaherty u17.5 outs (+178)
Webb u6.5 hits (-115)
Pivetta o1.5 earned runs (-145)
Bradford o4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Today’s best SP angles
Oakland Athletics vs New York Mets
The angle: Jose Quintana struggles coming off 100+ pitch games
The New York Mets' lefty is coming off a game where he hit the triple-digit mark in terms of his pitch count, which could mean a poorer performance today; he's hit 100 pitches just five times in his previous 22 starts this year — and he's failed to go 18 outs in each of those following starts. He has also allowed 19 earned runs over those games, in 22+ innings.
It's a tough call to hit his Under 17.5 outs (+115 at bet365) because he's facing the Oakland A's and the visitors will have Friday off before opening up a home series with the San Francisco Giants on Saturday. It could be a getaway performance for the A's this afternoon but THE BAT projects for 16.6 outs making this a decent Under to play because of a small board.
The move: Jose Quintana Under 17.5 outs (+115 at bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Jack Flaherty is coming off a season-high 110 pitches
He has been pushed by the Los Angeles Dodgers since being acquired, throwing 110 and 99 pitches — and has gone just 18 and 17 outs in those heavy workload starts. The Dodgers' bullpen is still fresh, thanks to a day off on Tuesday, and Flaherty projects for 16.9 outs today on 96 pitches. The issue is that most books are currently at 18.5 for a total on the out market and at -185, that's a no-go for me.
However, Caesars has moved to +178 for the Under 17.5 outs, which is very tempting.
It's always tough to judge where to attack a possible shorter start but fewer innings can mean less volume, which is good for markets like hits allowed. Flaherty's Under 4.5 hits (+130 at Hard Rock) projects well with THE BAT expecting 4.75.
The Under on both his outs and hits allowed will be sweaty, but with both at plus money and a road start vs. a good Milwaukee lineup, splitting a unit on both isn't a terrible way to play this.
I think the probability of one of the two hitting is great and getting both works too as Flaherty uses a lot of pitches to rack up his strikeouts. If you cannot play the two bets at those numbers, the Under 17.5 outs at +178 is too tough a price to pass up and is the better single play.
The move: Jack Flaherty Under 17.5 outs (+178 at Caesars for .5u) and Under 4.5 hits allowed (+130 at Hard Rock at .5u)
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants
The angle: Logan Webb is coming off a season-high 110 pitches
Webb is a long-leashed pitcher who routinely gets deep but he is coming off his heaviest workload of the season. While I'm not fading him today vs. a brutal Atlanta lineup, I do think he could see a smaller volume of batters today, giving value to his Under 6.5 hits allowed at -115 — is a massive number for a plus-pitcher.
I'd play this -130 which is important as the market is dropping. This is the same number as Jordan Montgomery yesterday, who closed nearly 75 points shorter than I posted in the morning. I love this market as it isn't as popular as Ks or outs, takes more time to move, and isn't always set correctly. His Under 2.5 earned runs is also a good look to add to a parlay at -150 or better.
He projects for 2.21 ER and 5.99 hits allowed on a full 97 pitches: If his hits allowed moves to -135 or shorter, pivot to his Under 20.5 total outs, which is a giant number too and similarly priced at -115 for the Under at bet365.
The move: Logan Webb Under 6.5 hits allowed (-115 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
The angle: Nick Pivetta is coming back after skipping his last turn in the rotation (rest)
The Boston Red Sox are handling Nick Pivetta with care of late after the starter put up a 7.11 ERA over his last three starts and lasted just 70 pitches in his previous outings. His outs market has already hit 15.5 and is heavily juiced to the Under, making his Over 1.5 earned runs a great play here... even at -145.
He has given up two home runs in three straight starts and even if his leash is short, two earned runs is doable. His ER market is tied to his low out total, hence the lower ER number. THE BAT loves this Over 1.5 earned runs and is showing value on the Over 2.5 with a projection of 2.84 on 87 pitches. Hard Rock has a 2.5 ER total that pays +155. If the juice is too much, wait for this number to flip.
The move: Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 earned runs (-145 at bet365)
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers
The angle: Cody Bradford is stretched out and missing bats
Texas Rangers starter Cody Bradford will be making his third start following a move from the bullpen. He struck out five vs. Boston on just 59 pitches and followed that up with seven Ks vs. the Yankees on 92 pitches.
He projects to get deep again today and his Over 4.5 Ks at plus money is looking good: He's at home vs. the Twins, who are an average K% team, but Bradford has been a K/inning guy in the Bigs and getting to 18 outs and six Ks here is a legit possibility.
That is giving some ladder vibes, especially with the base number, the Over 4.5, sitting at plus money.
The move: Cody Bradford Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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