The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto back to the rotation to face the Chicago Cubs and lefty Shota Imanaga in a matchup of rookie Japanese starters.
Our top Cubs vs. Dodgers predictions are calling for Imanaga to have a tough time working through the Los Angeles lineup tonight.
I dig deeper into the matchup below with tonight's MLB picks.
Cubs vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs recorded (+146 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers pack a big-time punch against lefties with a third-ranked .332 wOBA and .334 on-base percentage, and Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has thrown at least 95 pitches in each of his past four starts. For comparison, the Chicago lefty averaged 88.2 across his previous five.
Imanaga has also been the beneficiary of good fortune all season. His 3.70 xFIP is well above his 2.99 ERA, and there’s potential for his .263 BABIP to climb and 77.3% strand rate to drop, especially considering his respective 3.55, 2.16, .131, and 96.8% marks across his past four starts.
Of course, Los Angeles has also been a force at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium with a league-high .197 ISO backed by a fourth-ranked .335 wOBA and an average of 4.96 runs per game. Additionally, I also value Los Angeles' ability to slot in seven right-handed batters to hold the platoon advantage against Imanaga while the two remaining left-handed hitters are also above average against southpaws. The Dodgers' one-two lefty punch of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman respectively sport .344 and .331 wOBAs against same-sided arms.
It’s notable because Imanaga has held left-handed hitters to a minuscule .205 batting average and .239 wOBA, while righties have respective .265 and .284 marks. I also value the Chicago lefty sporting better underlying metrics at home than on the road. Imanaga has a 4.22 xFIP and 3.75 K/BB on the highway compared to 3.26 and 10.56 at Wrigley Field.
Finally, this is also a five-star recommendation from our MLB player prop projections.
Shohei Ohtani pick: TEASER
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 H + R + RBI (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
As noted, Ohtani has still been incredibly effective against left-handed pitchers this season, and he’s hit the Over in this market in nine of his past 13 games while going 16-for-54 with 15 runs and seven RBI with a monster .403 wOBA and .333 ISO.
Additionally, if Imanaga does exit early, Ohtani could see looks against right-handed relievers. The Dodger superstar boasts a league-high .390 ISO and third-ranked .449 wOBA vs. RHP for the season.
Cubs vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs
Shota Imanaga Over 1.5 walks
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
The Dodgers rank seventh in baseball with a 8.9 BB%, and Imanaga sports a 5.6% mark on the road while his BB/9 climbs from 0.98 at Wrigley Field to 2.05 on the highway. Imanaga has also walked two or more in two of his past three starts, and I also value Los Angeles sporting the fifth-lowest 19.6 K% against lefties for the season. This leg of the same-game parlay also correlates with the Under 17.5 outs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
Cubs vs Dodgers live odds
Cubs vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +140 | Los Angeles -165
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-165) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a small move to the Los Angeles side of this moneyline at Pinnacle. The Dodgers opened at -149 and are trading at -156 as of Tuesday morning.
- The moneyline hasn’t seen any movement at bet365, with Los Angeles a -165 home favorite.
- It’s a different story with the total. Both Pinnacle and bet365 opened at 7.5, and both shops have seen action on the Over and are hanging an 8.0 total on Tuesday morning.
- Pinnacle has the higher vig attached to the Under, while bet365 has an even -110 price on both sides.
Cubs vs Dodgers trend
Shota Imanaga has thrown at least 95 pitches in each of his past four starts after averaging just 88.2 across his prior five outings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers.
Cubs vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, SN1 |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (12-3, 2.99 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-2, 2.92 ERA) |
Cubs vs Dodgers latest injuries
Cubs vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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