The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox face off in the second game of a three-game set at Fenway Park on Tuesday night.
Boston's big bats led the home side to a 12-3 victory last night, and my Orioles vs. Red Sox predictions for today are expecting another big game from Rafael Devers.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this AL East showdown on September 10.
Orioles vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox All-Star Rafael Devers has been in a bit of a hitting slump but he broke out of that by going went 3-for-5 at the dish last night. Despite an ugly August for Devers, the two-time Silver Slugger is putting together another strong season, ranking 10th in the majors in slugging percentage (.542) and racking up 266 total bases through 128 games.
Devers performs better at home ,where he slashes .306/.391/.579 thanks to the shallow right-field fence at Fenway. He also thrives with the platoon advantage, slugging .630 against righties. Today, Devers and the Sox face off against the Baltimore Orioles and right-hander Albert Suarez.
The 34-year-old Suarez returned to the majors this season after spending six years overseas, and he's tough to trust. He was sharp coming out of the bullpen earlier in the year but has an OBA of .266 as a starter across 101 2/3 innings. Suarez sits in the Bottom 20th percentile in ground-ball rate, which is bad news against the hard-hitting Devers.
Suarez's best pitch is his cutter, but he uses it just 6.1% of the time against left-handed hitters, instead relying on his four-seamer and changeup. Devers crushes those offerings, slugging .639 against fastballs and batting .320 versus changeups.
Orioles vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Anthony Santander Over 1.5 total bases
Under 9
O's outfielder Anthony Santander is putting together the best season of his career and jacked his 40th homer last night. Santander actually hits better on the road than at home, slugging .563 in away contests. The switch-hitting Santander will also have the platoon advantage against Boston starter Kutter Crawford.
These have been two of the most productive offenses in the majors, but that has led to some high totals and they've been ice-cold at the dish over the last couple of weeks. Over the last 15 days, Baltimore is 20th in the majors in OPS (.685) while the Red Sox are two spots behind them with an OPS of .665.
Taking the Over on Santander and Devers' total bases and the Under on the full game total creates an excellent multiplier for an SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Red Sox odds
Orioles vs Red Sox live odds
Orioles vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore -105 | Boston -115
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-190) | Boston -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Orioles vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Red Sox, who shifted from -115 to -130 on the moneyline.
- The Orioles have the third-best record in the AL at 82-63 but have gone just 17-19 since the start of August.
- Boston has been raking during the second half of the season but that's been offset by a steep decline in pitching, which has resulted in a 20-28 record since the All-Star break.
- Crawford had an ugly three-game stretch where he allowed 12 homers in 15 innings, but he has a 3.51 ERA in his other 26 starts.
Orioles vs Red Sox trend
The Orioles have hit the team total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+16.10 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Red Sox.
Orioles vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suarez (7-5, 3.49 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (8-13, 4.08 ERA) |
Orioles vs Red Sox latest injuries
Orioles vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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