Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, September 4.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 4
Stroman u17.5 outs (-115)
Canning u4.5 strikeouts (-130)
Today’s best SP angles
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
The angle: Marcus Stroman's out market is too high.
This isn't a huge edge but more of an Under play on Marcus Stroman's high outs total of 17.5. He has gone Under this number in 11 of his last 14 starts, despite averaging over 90 pitches per outing.
He's seen a crap run of offenses of late as well and faced the Rangers four starts ago, where he pitched well with one run on four hits. However, he wasn't efficient and went just 15 outs on 89 pitches. Stroman's ceiling is low as he has gone more than 18 outs just three times in 26 starts.
It's a buy to -130 as he projects for 16.4 outs today.
The move: Marcus Stroman Under 17.5 outs (-115 at bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
The angle: It's a tough matchup with great hitting conditions for Griffin Canning.
The home side starter projects for just 3.8 punchouts today vs. the Dodgers, who are scorching hot and a gauntlet of a lineup. They are striking out at a 21% clip over the last two weeks, which ranks in the bottom third of the league and the weather might not be helpful for Griffing Canning, who has just 65 Ks over 87 innings since June 1.
There are not many weather edges today but Angel Stadium will feel close to 90 degrees with a decent 9-mph wind blowing out to right field.
Canning's Under 4.5 Ks is available at -130, but that is going to drop to around -150 today. I'd hit this to as short as -140 and if that is too pricey, add "pitcher to win NO" to beef it up. Across his last 13 starts, Canning has hit this Over vs. Seattle (2x), Colorado, the Mets, and Oakland.
The move: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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