The long ball burned the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series, but there’s a good chance the ball stays in the park when they open a road trip against the Houston Astros.
Game 1 of this three-game set is looking like one hell of a pitchers' duel with Kevin Gausman toeing the rubber against Hunter Brown.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks break down the best bet and a same-game parlay for this American League showdown on Monday, April 21.
Blue Jays predictions for April 21
- Best bet
Under 7.5
(-110 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Under 7.5
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+525 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Gausman Stops the Bleeding
Under 7.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
Pitching has a real chance to dominate this series, and it starts in Game 1.
The Toronto Blue Jays just watched what home runs can do for you, as the Seattle Mariners of all teams outslugged them over the weekend, which resulted in them dropping two of the three games.
They're hoping that handing the ball to Kevin Gausman against in tonight’s opener against the Houston Astros puts a stop to that.
Gausman has looked like his vintage self through his first four starts of the season. His fastball velocity is solid, and his trademark splitter is dancing. He is pitching to a 3.37 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .224 expected batting average.
And Gausman has been in a real groove over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs on 10 hits while striking out 16 batters in 14 innings of work.
Now, he’ll face an Astros offense that has struggled to produce runs, ranking 23rd in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+ (maybe trading Kyle Tucker and letting Alex Bregman walk wasn’t a great plan).
That has resulted in scoring just 3.67 runs per game, which ranks 23rd in the big leagues. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays sit just one spot ahead of the Astros in that category.
Now, the Blue Jays have been hitting for a decent average, but they just don’t seem to be getting that big knock when they need it most. While they rank seventh in batting average, they are just 17th in OPS and have hit the second-fewest home runs this season.
And hitting dingers won’t get any easier against Astros starter Hunter Brown. The 26-year-old right-hander was once one of Houston’s most highly touted pitching prospects, and he is showing that potential now.
Brown has thrown 17 straight scoreless innings and now has an xERA of 3.02. He is also an extreme groundball pitcher who ranks in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 94th percentile in average exit velocity.
Like I said, pitching dominates the opener of this series. Give me the Under 7.5.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Let’s double down on a good night on the mound for Gausman. The starter’s best two pitches have worked well so far this season. His four-seam fastball has a .223 expected batting average against it, while his devastating splitter has a .193 xBA.
As a result, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts. I don’t expect the Astros and their struggling bats to buck this trend.
And finally, there’s no denying that the Blue Jays would love to see some more pop in their lineup, including from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has gone deep just once this season. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays star hasn’t been locked in.
Guerrero has nine multiple-hit games in his last 15, hitting for a .345 average and a respectable .917 OPS over that stretch. He has also recorded a double in each of the last two games. This is a tough matchup but I like Vladdy to stay hot and go Over 1.5 total bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, April 21, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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