The Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros find themselves in eerily similar situations as they prepare to kick off a three-game series for MLB betting Friday night at Minute Maid Park.
Both teams are situated in the middle of the pack in their respective divisions, two games back of the first-place team. And both sides own run differentials that suggest they should be even better than they've been.
Lets’ see which team can separate itself as we break down our Blue Jays vs. Astros picks and predictions for Friday, May 7.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonHouston stretched from a -130 opener to -150 by midmorning at PointsBet USA, then late this morning receded to -145, where the moneyline stuck the rest of the day. As of 4:45 p.m. ET, the Astros are drawing 59 percent of bets, while the Blue Jays are taking 64 percent of money. The total opened at 9 flat (-110), briefly got to 9.5 later this morning and is now 9 (Over -125), with ticket count and money just beyond 3/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBlue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ross Stripling (0-1, 6.39 ERA): Injuries opened the door for Stripling to prove his worth as a starter, but he has yet to take advantage of the opportunity. The former Dodgers prospect has allowed nine runs over 12 2-3 innings in his three turns this season, and has surrendered a whopping 20 runs over 28 1-3 innings over parts of two seasons with the Blue Jays
Jose Urquidy (2-2, 3.71 ERA): Urquidy hit a few bumps to start the season but has rounded into form. He's coming off his best start of the season last time out against the Tampa Bay Rays (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K) and has limited opponents to just two earned runs in 13 innings over his past two starts. Lefties are batting just .182 against him on the season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: George Springer OF (Out), Alejandro Kirk C (Out).
Astros: No injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Houston has won eight of the previous 11 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
These two lineups can make life miserable for opposing pitchers – but we have a lot more confidence in the Astros to do serious damage in Friday's series opener.
Houston enters the weekend set ranked third in the majors in batting average, tied for fifth in runs scored and seventh in slugging percentage. And Stripling just hasn't figured things out – not only this season but throughout his time with the Blue Jays. His 3.5 BB/9 rate with Toronto is considerably higher than the mark he posted with L.A. (2.2 BB/9), and that won't fly vs. the Astros.
We're not suggesting that bettors discount a red-hot Blue Jays offense that has scored six or more runs in six of its previous nine games. However, Urquidy has the benefit of not having faced Toronto before. Only one Blue Jays hitter has entered the box vs. the right-hander, with Marcus Semien having gone 1-for-4 with a home run against Urquidy when he was with the Oakland A's.
We like the pitching matchup for Houston enough to make the Astros our pick here.
PREDICTION: Houston (-140)
Over/Under pick
As strange as it is for an offense as prolific as Toronto's, the Blue Jays are actually one of the top Under teams on the road this season, coming into Minute Maid Park with a 6-13 O/U away mark. That said, any time Stripling toes the rubber, there's a chance that the opposing offense will break out and Toronto will be forced to dip into its reliever reserve earlier than hoped.
Urquidy is the key here, and there are reasons to think he won't be nearly as sharp as he was last time out. Righties have a .284/.321/.486 slash line in 74 at-bats against him this season, and the Blue Jays rank 11th in the majors in OPS vs. right-handed pitching (.709). They also boast an .822 OPS against all pitchers over their last nine games, second in MLB in that span.
There could be some scoring in this game, so we feel confident in the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Astros betting card
- Houston (-140)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/7/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET
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