Following last night’s dramatic late-inning victory, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to take the three-game set vs. the visiting Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon as Tony Gonsolin sits as a -130 home favorite vs. lefty Yusei Kikuchi in a game bettors could see plenty of runs.
With extreme hitter conditions this afternoon and falling markets, can bettors still find value in Kikuchi’s Unders despite some heavily-juiced lines?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers for Wednesday, July 26.
Blue Jays vs Dodgers odds
Blue Jays vs Dodgers predictions
Yusei Kikuchi might be a strikeout-per-inning pitcher, but he's not going 18 outs today vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers — especially with the hitting conditions at Dodger Stadium. That leaves a ton of value for his Under 5.5 strikeout market that's been pummeled to the Under today.
The expected temperature at game time is forecasted in the low 90s, about as hot as it gets here. There's also a 9.5 mph wind blowing straight out. That’s bad news for Kikuchi who has allowed 22 home runs over 20 starts and faces an offense that hits the second most home runs per game at home at 1.77.
L.A. has launched two homers in each of the two games of this series and now gets its best HR matchup vs. an extreme flyball pitcher in Kikuchi.
THE BAT is projecting a very brief outing for the Toronto lefty at 74 pitches, 11.9 outs, 1.27 home runs, 4.11 strikeouts, and 3.13 earned runs.
Applying those projections to his markets, the best value in fading Kikuchi is in his Under 5.5 strikeouts despite the high juice.
If the 80-point juice is too much, head over to FanDuel to get the 4.5-strikeout line at +108, which is still showing +EV.
I’m laying nearly two units to win one unit on the Under 5.5 strikeouts as there's not a lot to like in today’s matchup for Kikuchi. THE BAT X release show hit this at -145 this morning but this is still a 76% win probability at around 60% implied.
My best bet: Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 strikeouts (-180 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Yusei Kikuchi Under 15.5 outs (-175)
Tony Gonsolin Under 16.5 outs (-135)
Both teams to score 4+ runs (+100)
I'm getting very correlated with today's SGP with the running theme of runs early and often. Neither starter projects to finish the fifth inning and because of the bullpen usage over the last three days for both teams, the middle-to-late innings could produce a ton of offense with these two elite lineups.
Both starters are projected to give up over 3.0 earned runs themselves and not even record 14 outs. THE BAT is projecting this Over 10 to hit at 63.4% and two-way scoring is almost guaranteed with the hitting conditions and the starting pitching matchup. It could easily be 4-4 before the sixth inning.
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Blue Jays vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers opened at -130, moved to -140, and then settled back down to the opening moneyline price of -130 before noon today. The Dodgers closed as -140 favorites yesterday in a pitching matchup (Chris Bassitt vs. Julio Urias) that rates similarly to today’s matchup of Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tony Gonsolin.
Thanks to mid-90s temperatures and double-digit wind blowing straight out at Dodger Stadium, it’s not going to be easy on the starting pitchers today and there's a chance both starters leave at least 12 outs for these bullpens to pick up.
I don’t see an edge in either starter. Gonsolin has allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts while Kikuchi is a short-leashed lefty that gives up home runs. His 22 long balls allowed on the season is a Top-5 mark.
If I’m backing one of these teams — which is basically a coinflip with home field added — I’m doing it on bullpen strength. The problem is, both bullpens are gassed and are hard to trust.
The Dodgers currently have four relievers who might not be available including two high-leverage RPs in Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson. With Gonsolin not projected to get deep and the afternoon setting making it tough on an overworked bullpen, I’m projecting plenty of late runs in this game.
Both teams have their closers available but we could easily see 10+ runs scored before either one of them enters the game.
This total opened at 9.5 and has hit 10.5 in some places. It’s two elite offenses, two short-leashed starters who have earned run totals of 3.5, and a pair of abused bullpens.
Kikuchi has gone more than 15 outs just twice since May 14 and the Jays’ weakness is in that middle-relief role that has thrown a combined 143 pitches over the last three days across five relievers.
The Jays likely have the value on the side at +120 or better, but I love runs today and am happy to hit the Over on the high total of 10.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers have cashed their team total Over in 60 of their last 96 games (+19.10 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
Blue Jays vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 26, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SportsNet Los Angeles |
Starting pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi (7-3, 3.92 ERA): Kikuchi will be making his 21st start of the season and enters tonight with a 108/31 K:BB ratio over 103+ innings. He’s gone more than 15 outs just twice since May 14 but has also allowed just one earned run in his two post-break starts (10 IP). He’s allowed 22 home runs on the season and eight stolen bases on nine attempts. The Jays are 13-7 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 74 pitches, 11.9 outs, 4.11 strikeouts, and 3.13 earned runs.
Tony Gonsolin (5-3, 3.94 ERA): Gonsolin will be making his 16th start of the season and owns a 63/30 K:BB ratio over 77+ innings with 10 home runs allowed. His .209 BABIP is concerning and his expected metrics are higher than his actuals. He has a 6.97 ERA over his last six starts and has allowed 4+ runs in five of those starts. There have been at least 10 runs scored in seven of his last nine starts, as well. The Dodgers are 8-7 SU when Gonsolin starts and THE BAT is projecting 78 pitches, 13.7 outs, 4.05 strikeouts, and 3.01 earned runs.
