The Toronto Blue Jays continue their west coast road trip as they open a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants.
The series opener will be a southpaw showdown, as Yusei Kikuchi toes the rubber against Blake Snell. With Kikuchi stuck in a slump and Snell struggling for most of the season, my Blue Jays vs. Giants prediction is set on total tonight.
Read on as I break down my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 9.
Blue Jays vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
When I looked at this pitching matchup and then the total, I immediately thought it was too low.
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays have, in general, had trouble in terms of run production this season, but San Francisco Giants starter Blake Snell has been catastrophically bad this season.
Despite being the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, Snell was late to sign in the offseason, and didn’t really get a Spring Training, so it was no surprise when his season got off to a rough start.
Multiple injuries have limited Snell to just six starts, with the last coming back on June 2. Those six starts haven’t been pretty. The left-hander owns a 4.77 expected ERA while surrendering a .250 opponent expected batting average.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returning to his All-Star form this season, the resurgence of guys like George Springer, and some young bats in the lineup like Spencer Horwitz, the Blue Jays should have enough pop to plate some runs off of Snell.
Then there's Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays left-hander looked like an All-Star himself in the season's first quarter, but things have taken a bit of a dramatic turn lately.
Kikuchi has pitched to a 6.50 ERA while giving up a .927 OPS over his last eight starts, and the Giants will pose another tough matchup for him. San Francisco ranks eighth in batting average and wRC+, and ninth in OPS when facing lefties this season.
Mix in a Blue Jays bullpen that can be best described as a dumpster fire with baseball’s second-worst ERA, then yeah, this total of 7.5 looks too low. It doesn’t hurt that the Over has cashed in seven of Kikuchi’s last eight starts.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+180 at PROLINE+)
Guerrero is the Blue Jays' lone All-Star this season, and he certainly deserves the selection. The Blue Jays first baseman enters this matchup hitting .295 with an .830 OPS, 13 home runs, and 52 runs batted in.
But most of that damage has been done more recently. Over the last 15 games, Guerrero's hitting .371 with a 1.152 OPS, which includes six doubles, six dingers, and 22 RBI. He collected another three hits and two RBI over the weekend, and I like him to carry that momentum into this matchup.
Vladdy has solid numbers against Snell, albeit with a small sample size. He’s 2-6 with a double, a home run, and three walks in nine career plate appearances vs. the Giants southpaw.
With Snell giving up at least three runs in all six of his starts this season, I like the odds for Vladdy to drive in another run here — something he's done eight times in the last 15 games. Plus, at this price, the Over 0.5 RBI is a 5-star play per our Covers Prop Projections.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Giants odds
Blue Jays vs Giants live odds
Blue Jays vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -185 | San Francisco -1.5 +155
- Moneyline: Toronto +110 | San Francisco -130
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as slight road underdogs but have seen the early action, moving the line to Toronto +100.
- Bettors must like the Blue Jays as underdogs here, mostly because of Blake Snell's struggles this season. And while Toronto's bullpen has been bad, San Francisco's hasn't been great in its own right, ranking 21st in ERA.
- The total hit the board at 7.5, and that's where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays began the season as a solid Under bet thanks to their inconsistent bats and solid starting pitching. But the bats have come around a bit, and the pitching has slipped, flipping everything on its head.
Blue Jays vs Giants trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games for +8.50 Units and a 38% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Giants
Blue Jays vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCSBA |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 4.12 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (0-3, 9.51 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Giants latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
