Despite the Canadian invasion packing the stands at T-Mobile Park, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to flounder on these West Coast trips to face the Seattle Mariners – but they’ll have a chance to flip that script this afternoon.
After last night’s 3-2 loss, the Blue Jays have now dropped 10 of their last 12 games in Seattle. This latest contest was there for the taking, with a 2-0 lead and a strong start from Yusei Kikuchi. But Teoscar Hernandez sunk his former team with a walk-off hit against Jordan Romano, capping an impressive rally and helping the Mariners’ wildcard push.
The hosts turn to Logan Gilbert today in what looks like an elite pitching duel against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays are holding as slight road favorites in the MLB odds.
Get the lowdown on this July 22 matchup with our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Mariners.
Blue Jays vs Mariners odds
Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions
When left side soreness forced Kevin Gausman to sit out of the All-Star Game this month then miss his start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, it threatened to add another headache for a Blue Jays team still sweating on whether Alek Manoah will rediscover his 2022 form. Crisis averted – for now, at least.
Gausman will be back on the mound today to face a Mariners lineup that he bamboozled back in April to the tune of seven scoreless innings and 13 strikeouts. Sure, he hasn’t pitched since July 8, but I expect the Toronto ace to settle quickly.
While the Seattle hitters try to figure out Gausman, the visitors are going to have their hands full with Logan Gilbert, who’s set the stage for Mariners wins in four of his last five starts and dragged his ERA back under 4.00 this month.
I’m hard-pressed to predict a runfest given the quality of this pitching showdown. Gilbert has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last six outings, while Gausman has given up two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.
On top of that, neither team has been lighting it up at the plate. The Blue Jays’ offense has been scuffling (seven runs in four games) since sweeping the Diamondbacks just after the All-Star break. Even after some promising signs in this week’s series against the Minnesota Twins, Seattle ranks in the Bottom 5 in both hits and batting average.
I see runs being at a premium again this afternoon, and I’m taking the Under on today’s total.
My best bet: Under 7.5 (-128 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay
Under 7.5
Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Springer Over 0.5 Hits
Gausman has been a steadying presence for Toronto all year, and I’m counting on more of the same today. That means challenging hitters and piling up Ks.
His double-digit tally against Seattle earlier this season was no outlier – Gausman has 153 strikeouts in 2023 (second in the league) and I like his chances of getting at least eight more this afternoon, in addition to driving the total towards the Under.
George Springer went 0-for-3 last night but his record against Gilbert is eye-catching, with a double, a triple, and a homer from his seven at-bats against the Mariners’ starter. I’m bumping up the SGP odds with a Springer hit as the third leg.
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Blue Jays vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Any lingering concerns about Gausman’s side soreness aren’t enough to shift the odds in Seattle’s favor here. The Blue Jays get the favorites tag as they try to even up the series, and the waves of travelling Toronto fans put a dent in any kind of homefield advantage.
Still, the visitors’ last win at T-Mobile Park came in August 2021, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Blue Jays’ bats are going to show up. They were outhit 10-6 last night and only managed a single run across the first two games of their midweek series against the San Diego Padres.
That ties into the Under being an attractive bet this afternoon, as I’ve laid out above. Gausman’s health has to be counted as a slight wildcard, but it’s easy to imagine a low-scoring battle similar to last night’s contest. The last five meetings have all been decided for two runs or fewer – four of them by a one-run margin.
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Trend to know
The Mariners have had a stranglehold in this matchup in the past few years, including a two-game postseason sweep, and they’re 8-2 across the last 10 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Blue Jays vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, July 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.03 ERA): Cleared for this start after missing his previous one, Gausman’s return provides a boost for a Toronto team that’s lost three of its last four games. With a 1.13 WHIP, the right-hander’s record this year would look healthier with better run support. He’s gotten through six innings of work in four of his last five starts.
Logan Gilbert (8-5, 3.65 ERA): Gilbert ranks third in the league with his 1.01 WHIP and has consistently pitched deep into games over the past month, including a complete game against the San Francisco Giants on July 4. He’s not a strikeout monster like Gausman, but the righty will test a wobbling Toronto line-up.
