The trade deadline is just hours away, and while the Toronto Blue Jays have already shipped out a handful of players, more could be out the door. However, they still need to focus on their four-game set against the Baltimore Orioles, and it all starts with a doubleheader on July 29.
Game 1 sees the red-hot Yariel Rodriguez go against Zach Eflin — who's making his second consecutive start against the Jays after getting traded from the Rays to the O’s — and my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions expect Toronto to take advantage of the familiar matchup.
I break it all down in my MLB picks below.
Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays five-inning moneyline (+135 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The selloff for the Toronto Blue Jays has begun, with Yimi Garica, Nate Pearson, and Danny Jansen all finding new homes over the weekend. The question is if any of the big names will be moved before tomorrow’s deadline.
But for now, let’s assume the roster stays pretty intact for the opener of this doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles, and one guy very likely staying put is tonight’s starter Yariel Rodriguez.
The Blue Jays signed Rodriguez out of Cuba this offseason, and after a rocky start, which included some injuries, it looks like the righty is settling in as a Big League pitcher.
The 27-year-old has made four starts this month and is pitching to a 2.01 ERA while limiting opponents to a .123 batting average. He's racked up 25 Ks in 22 1/3 IP and will have a good chance to keep cooking against an Orioles lineup mired in a slump.
Despite holding onto a lead in the American League East, the Baltimore bats have dropped off in July: ranking 22nd in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 17th in wRC+.
This is also an interesting matchup because it marks the second straight start for Zach Eflin against the Blue Jays, thanks to getting traded. The veteran RHP revived his career with the Rays, but he’s been getting hit with more regularity this season.
Eflin’s .246 opponent xBA average ranks in just the 45th percentile, and July hasn’t been a great month for him either, pitching to a 4.76 ERA and giving up a .270 BA. That includes allowing two runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings in that last start against the Jays.
Toronto has now tagged Eflin for 12 earned runs on 21 hits in 17 1/3 frames over three starts this season. Current Jays batters have combined for a .257 xBA and a .414 xSLG, with guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer doing plenty of damage.
Once again, you can’t trust the Blue Jays with a full-game moneyline bet, particularly because the only reliable arms in an already bad bullpen are being moved. That said, I believe there's some value with them on the first five moneyline in Game 1 of this doubleheader.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Let’s stick with Yariel Rodriguez for today’s star player prop. While the righty may not be a star yet, he’s pitching like one at the moment.
The advanced numbers are starting to spell that out too. Rodriguez has lowered his xERA to 3.61 and his opponent xBA to .224. Those rank in the 64th and 75th percentile, respectively. The combination of his four-seamer and slider has been tough for hitters to square up, and he’s starting to rack up strikeouts.
Rodriguez’s strikeout rate for the season is already a respectable 25.8%, but it’s been even more impressive at 30.4% over his last four starts. That has resulted in him punching out at least six batters in all four of those outings.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has the 11th highest K-rate vs. RHP, and yet Rodriguez has a strikeout prop sitting at 4.5 with the Over at solid plus money.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles live odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-150) | Baltimore -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Toronto +140 | Baltimore -165
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as +140 road underdogs, and they've been faded to the +160 range as of late Monday morning.
- Despite the Blue Jays' struggles this season, they have played the Orioles tough, going 3-3 in six matchups and entering this game hot, having won three in a row.
- The total hit the board at 9.0 but there are some 9.5s out there now as well.
- The Blue Jays have transformed into an Over team thanks to their bats coming around combined with one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Over has hit in three of the last four meetings between these AL East rivals.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 27 of their last 35 games for +19.20 Units and a 50% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (1-3, 3.69 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (5-7, 4.09 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
