The Toronto Blue Jays' success against the Baltimore Orioles was short-lived, as the O’s responded to losing the series opener by taking Game 2 by a score of 7-0.
The Jays wasted another great start from Kevin Gausman, as their bats were unable to get anything going against Dean Kremer. Will it be the same story for Toronto when Jose Berrios faces off against Kyle Gibson in Thursday’s rubber match?
Despite what looks like an edge in starting pitching, the Blue Jays are slight road underdogs in this matchup. But I think it’s the total that we should take a closer look at.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on Thursday, August 24.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
Kevin Gausman came out and said his team needs more “urgency.” And he isn’t wrong. The Blue Jays lost yet another game against the Orioles, this time falling 7-0. They wasted another solid six innings from Gausman, who allowed two runs on five hits while striking out eight.
It was the 12th time in the last 22 games that the Blue Jays scored three runs or fewer. Unfortunately for Blue Jays fans, I’m not exactly sure things will change tonight against Orioles starter Kyle Gibson.
The veteran right-hander is another one of those inexplicable Orioles starters. Despite an expected ERA of 4.54 and ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and strikeout rate, he has 12 wins.
Gibson has also been able to give the Jays' hitters fits this season. He has held Toronto to two earned runs on nine hits over 13 innings against them in 2023.
Meanwhile, Jose Berrios’ rebound this season has made him a welcome addition to the Jays pitching staff. The right-hander has pitched to a 2.84 ERA over his last 23 starts, averaging nearly six innings per start over that stretch.
Berrios bounced back after a rare rough outing, shutting out the Cincinnati Reds on one hit over eight innings over 5 1/3 innings of work. He was also outstanding in his lone start against Baltimore back June 14, which was also at Camden Yards. Berrios shut out the O's on three hits over 7 2/3 innings in that game.
Despite the significant difference in the standings, these two lineups look very similar when you break down the stats. The biggest difference is that Baltimore ranks third in OPS with runners in scoring position, and the Blue Jays rank 25th.
In addition to that, this game features two of the best bullpens in the AL. The Orioles relievers rank second in xFIP and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings, while the Jays rank fourth and sixth, respectively, in those categories.
Excellent pitching and an offense that hasn’t been able to string together hits have been the recipe that has made the Blue Jays an Under machine for most of the last month. They’ve gone Under the total in 18 of their last 25 games. I expect more of the same in this matchup and will be grabbing the Under 9.
My best bet: Under 9 (-118 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay
Under 9
Orioles to score first
Varsho 2+ total bases
As per usual, the first leg of our same-game parlay starts off with our best bet, which today is the Under 9. But just because I like the Under doesn’t mean this game will be devoid of hitting.
Despite batting second in this matchup, I like the Orioles to score first. Not only have the O’s given Toronto a ton of problems, but the Jays are one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to first inning scoring, ranking 29th in that category. So, add the Orioles to score first as the second leg.
Not all of the Jays have bad numbers against Gibson. Toronto outfielder Daulton Varsho has tweaked his swing and has seen improvement, hitting .333 with a 1.162 OPS over his last nine games (which includes three doubles and three home runs), and is 4-for-11 in his career vs. Gibson with a double and a dinger.
Round out this SGP with Varsho to get 2+ total bases, and if all three hit we cash a +1,000 bet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup as about -105 road underdogs. But a few hours before first pitch, the game is looking like close to a toss-up with the teams lined -110 each way.
In theory, this makes sense. The raw numbers say Berrios is the superior starter, and frankly, he is. But as noted above, Gibson, for some reason, has tied Blue Jays’ hitters in knots. Maybe having a 3-9 record with a -37 run differential against the Orioles has something to do with that, but I digress.
The numbers say the Blue Jays should be slight favorites in this matchup. But there is obviously a mental hurdle the Blue Jays are having trouble clearing against certain opponents. The Orioles classify as one of those opponents.
The total hit the board at 8.5 and has bounced back and forth between that and 9. Both numbers are available as of Thursday afternoon. Obviously, I prefer the Under at 9, but would still lean toward the Under at 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Under is 18-7 in the Blue Jays' last 25 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, August 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Rogers Sportsnet, MASN |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (9-8, 3.39 ERA): Berrios has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the American League all season long. The right-hander has a 2.84 ERA over his last 23 starts and has pitched at least into the sixth inning 19 times this season.
Kyle Gibson (12-7, 4.97 ERA): Gibson is another one of those Orioles starters who has been just good enough this season. He has 12 wins despite a 4.97 ERA. But the right-hander has hit a bit of a rough patch, giving up 16 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings in the month of August.
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