The Toronto Blue Jays fire sale continued yesterday with Justin Turner getting traded to the Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi heading to Houston, with more moves potentially in the works before today’s trade deadline.
But one guy I'm fairly certain is staying put is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who will play a role in my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions. Vladdy stayed red-hot, going yard in both halves of yesterday’s doubleheader helping earn his team a split against the Baltimore Orioles.
Can he keep raking vs. O’s ace Corbin Burnes? I break down the MLB odds in my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 30.
Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia, and Nate Pearson are all already gone, and a few more Toronto Blue Jays players — including today’s starter Chris Bassitt — have been rumored to be on the move before today’s trade deadline comes to pass.
If Bassitt does make tonight’s start, he’ll have a chance to be successful against a Baltimore Orioles lineup that has been searching for some consistency this month. The O’s rank a middling 15th in batting average and 14th in OPS in July and Bassitt can give them some problems.
Contending teams would be happy to add Bassitt. He’s experienced and, more importantly, he’s been pretty effective for a good chunk of the season.
The 35-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 2.93 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over his last 12 starts. He’s also a reliable innings eater, averaging 5.7 innings and 97.4 pitches per start. And even though Bassitt is about league average when it comes to strikeout rate, that long leash has allowed him to cash the Over on his strikeout prop with regularity.
Bassitt’s strikeout prop for Tuesday’s matchup with the Orioles is sitting at 4.5. That’s a number he’s gone Over nine times in his last 11 starts and his last three starts in a row. And like everything else for Baltimore this month the K-rate has risen as well, ranking 15th striking out 22.1% of the time in July.
With these teams playing a doubleheader and using a lot of arms yesterday, it feels like the Blue Jays will give Bassitt as much of that leash as possible, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up the Ks. Plus, our Covers Prop Projections have Bassitt at 5.2 strikeouts in this matchup so, I’m willing to lay the juice and take the Over.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Now if the Blue Jays do the unthinkable and trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., you may as well just fire this entire franchise into the sun.
The man has been one of the best hitters in baseball since May and is currently in the middle of a ridiculous heater that included two home runs yesterday, one in each game of the doubleheader.
Thanks in part to those dingers, Vladdy extended his hitting streak to 12 games where he owns a .522 batting average with a 1.740 OPS, eight home runs, and 15 RBI.
Now, Guerrero gets a tough matchup against O’s ace Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been very effective this season but his strikeout rate is way down from what we’ve been used to, and pitching to contact against a guy as locked in as Guerrero could be trouble. Vladdy also has solid numbers in his career vs. Burnes, going 3-for-9 (.333) with just one strikeout.
Guerrero has driven in at least one run in 10 of his last 15 games and while this matchup against Burnes isn’t the best, it is giving us a good price to back him driving in another. In fact, our Covers Prop Projections have it as a five-star play.
Hey, Blue Jays front office. Extend Vladdy. In the meantime, we’ll keep cashing with his RBI prop.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles live odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -125 | Baltimore -1.5 +105
- Moneyline: Toronto +165 | Baltimore -200
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- With the Orioles handing the ball to Burnes, the Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as big +165 road underdogs, and have been faded to as high as +190 depending on the sportsbook.
- Burnes has had the Jays number this season, allowing two runs on 10 hits in 13 innings over two starts. However, Toronto managed to win one of those games.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
- The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these AL East rivals but with Burnes and Bassitt on the bump this game has a good chance to be low-scoring, at least early on. I would lean toward the Under first five here.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 away games for +9.10 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
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