The Toronto Blue Jays look to avoid a third straight series loss as they face the Texas Rangers in this afternoon’s rubber match.
Home runs from Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, and Corey Seager carried Texas to a 4-2 win yesterday as Dane Dunning outdueled the Toronto bullpen, giving the Rangers a much-needed victory after dropping seven of their last nine games.
Meanwhile, it was a familiar story for the Blue Jays, who had nine hits but failed to maximize those opportunities on the bases. Toronto has now scored three runs or fewer in each of its last four games.
Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rangers to learn more ahead of this June 18 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Rangers odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers predictions
There were plenty of silver linings for the Blue Jays in yesterday’s loss — not least, the multi-hit days for George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Daulton Varsho — and that bodes well heading into a showdown with Rangers ace Jon Gray, who’s among the AL ERA leaders.
While Gray has been locked in over his past six outings (5-1, 0.84 ERA), he’s been dealing with a blister that forced him to miss his last start. No IL stint for the right-hander is good news for the Rangers, but it’s fair to wonder whether his rhythm might be a little off after the extra rest days. Gray last pitched on June 7.
Guerrero Jr. and Varsho have had some success against Gray, admittedly on a small sample size, and I see the visitors being aggressive out of the gates — an approach that led to four first-inning hits yesterday.
I also like Chris Bassitt to hold his own against this Texas line-up — and there are some positive numbers to support that, with his arsenal of pitches flummoxing hitters. Adolis Garcia and Nathaniel Lowe are a combined 0-for-20 against Bassitt, while Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are also hitless in three at-bats apiece.
If the Rangers were firing on all cylinders offensively, it might be a different story — but they’ve been in a rough patch in June. I like these plus odds for the Blue Jays to snatch the series on the road here.
My best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+111 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Rangers same-game parlay
Blue Jays ML
Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Bases
Gray Over 4.5 Ks
I’ve already made the case for Toronto to edge this series decider, and I like Guerrero Jr. to be front and center. His struggles at the plate have been well documented, but he went 2-for-3 yesterday after a two-hit night in Baltimore on Thursday.
With a pair of hits in five at-bats against Gray, including a double, this is a matchup that the Blue Jays slugger can dominate. Vladdy only has one HR to his name since May 23, but he’ll be fresh after a DH assignment yesterday.
Gray’s ability to pitch deep into games keeps the strikeout prop on the table, and he’s hit the Over on 4.5 Ks in his last six starts. Even if the Rangers take a cautious approach with his pitch count this afternoon, Gray has thrived against righties (32 Ks, .185 average) — and that’s what he’s likely to see at the top of the Toronto line-up, especially with Brandon Belt on the IL.
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Blue Jays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The AL West-leading Rangers are installed as -135 favorites today but they’ve come back to earth in June after an impressive pace to start the season. While Texas’ whopping +144 run differential is tough to swallow if you’re picking the Blue Jays, I’m leaning towards the visitors finding a way past Gray and the hosts’ bullpen.
The Rangers have shown some flaws in a 3-7 stretch over their past 10 contests, and I like the Blue Jays’ offense to be more clinical this afternoon after some missed opportunities in this series. The top half of the Toronto line-up combined for eight hits yesterday, but the visitors couldn’t find the clutch hits from the 7-8-9 spots to cash them in.
While Gray’s strong season has understandably drawn more of the spotlight, Bassitt is equally capable of pitching deep into games and I see him bouncing back at Globe Field Park against a line-up that he’s consistently bamboozled in prior meetings.
The Blue Jays have trended towards the Under lately — it’s been a winning ticket in their last four games and it’s 5-1 in these teams’ last six meetings in Texas. The first two games in this series have certainly followed that script, and we’ve got two top-quality pitchers on the mound this afternoon.
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Trend to know
Toronto has trended towards lower-scoring contests against AL West opponents lately, with the Under hitting in the last five meetings against that division. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, June 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNET, BSSW |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.02 ERA): Bassitt will be eager to forget his last start, in which he lasted just three innings against the Baltimore Orioles and gave up eight runs on 11 hits. But his two prior starts were closer to what we’ve come to expect, with the veteran right-hander pitching past the seventh innings against both the Houston Astros and New York Mets.
Jon Gray (6-2, 2.32 ERA): There’s a lot to like about Gray’s numbers in 2023 and he’s on pace to blow away his stats from last year. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his six starts since May 2, but he’s pitching here after 10 days off.
