The Toronto Blue Jays have been quiet so far heading into Tuesday’s trade deadline, and while a big move could be in the works, the team will need to focus on the Tampa Bay Rays as the two American League East rivals open a mini two-game set at The Trop.
The Blue Jays enter this game as winners of 10 of their last 12 games and will be moderate road favorites as they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman. But is there value with the underdog Rays, who have consistently been a thorn in the side of the Jays, particularly at home?
Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rays on Tuesday, August 2.
Blue Jays vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as roughly -130 road favorites and have been bet to as much as -150, but have come back down to -140 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total for this matchup hit the board at a low 7.0 but is now juiced to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 8/02/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Jays vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa, FL
• Date: Tuesday, August 2, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Sun
Blue Jays vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (7-8, 3.30 ERA): Gausman is coming off a rough start against the Cardinals, allowing five runs on eight hits, lasting just 4 2-3 innings. It was only the second time in 19 starts this season that he allowed more than three earned runs.
Drew Rasmussen (6-3, 3.17 ERA): Rasmussen is coming off a solid month of July where he pitched to a 2.59 ERA, never giving up more than three earned runs in a start. The right-hander has also had plenty of success against the Blue Jays this season.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2 in the Blue Jays' last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in the Rays' last seven games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays
Blue Jays vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Blue Jays enter this matchup as winners of 10 of their last 12 ball games. But that stretch included games against a Triple-A version of the Royals, the Tigers, and a Red Sox team that looks like it has given up.
A matchup with the Rays, who trail the Jays by just three games in the wild-card standings and have already taken five of eight games against Toronto this season, will be a real test.
For starters, the Jays will need a strong performance out of Kevin Gausman. The right-hander is coming off a rough outing against the Cardinals, and while he has given up more hits than he would like, Gausman owns a solid expected FIP this season of 2.76.
He is also striking out a solid 10.6 batters per nine innings. He is set up well in this matchup against the Rays, who rank 23rd in batting average and OPS, and 27th in strikeout rate when facing right-handers.
The Rays counter Gausman with Rasmussen, and while the right-hander comes into this game pitching fairly well, he owns a much more mediocre 4.11 expected ERA while giving up a .254 expected batting average to opponents.
Now, he must deal with what has been arguably the best offense in baseball over the last two months. The Blue Jays lead the MLB in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ since the start of June.
Expect some regression from Rasmussen here, and with the big advantage the Jays lineup has over the Rays, backing them on the run line at plus money is great value.
Prediction: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
We are getting a low number since Gausman faces off against Rasmussen, but even with that pitching matchup, there is enough offense in this game to overcome this total.
Gausman is pitching well this season, but he is still giving up more hits than he would like, and opponents are getting to the right-hander for a .253 expected batting average. Even though the Rays are not a strong offensive team overall, they are coming off a month of June in which they ranked eighth in batting average and 10th in scoring at 4.48 runs per game.
On the other side, we know what the Jays are capable of, as they have been plating a whopping 7.44 runs per game since the All-Star break. Now they face Rasmussen, who hasn’t been giving up a ton of runs but is consistently getting hit hard and not striking out guys. That won’t play well against the Jays.
This number is already juiced to the Over, so jump on it before it gets to 7.5.
Prediction: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
While the Blue Jays have a lineup full of hot hitters, none may be hotter than Matt Chapman. The Blue Jays’ third baseman has found his rhythm since coming out of the All-Star break, hitting a crazy good .467 with five home runs.
He also has a hit in eight of his nine games in the second half and is a modest 1-3 in his career vs Rasmussen. This is a great price for him to grab another hit tonight.
Pick: Matt Chapman Over 0.5 hits (-128 at Caesars)
