Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Toronto's Bats Do More Damage

The Toronto Blue Jays took the opener last night, 9-3, and now the Boston Red Sox have seen their playoff odds drop to 4.6%.

The Jays are -170 compared to -140 yesterday and with Jose Berrios’ road splits, is this line getting a little long for bettors to hit? Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

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This Jays opened at -170 after closing at -145 last night. The market thinks that the opening line might be a little long as the movement has moved the line to -165. The total sits at 9.5 and leans to the Under. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Blue Jays TT Over 5 (-118)
• Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Berrios Under 17.5 outs (-105)

Picks made on 8/24/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, August 24, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, NESN

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (9-5, 5.39 ERA): Berrios is coming off a great road start in the Bronx where he allowed just one run across 6+ innings in a 9-2 win. On the season, though, he owns a 6.82 ERA across 12 road starts with a .911 OPS against. The right-hander has seen a stronger Boston lineup twice early in the season and allowed three runs over 13 innings — both wins. He has recorded a quality start in just 12 of his 24 starts but the Jays have won 17 of those games.  

Brayan Bello (0-3, 8.47 ERA): Rookie Brayan Bello is still looking for his first MLB win. He’s returning from the IL due to a groin injury he sustain on August 3. He’s compiled just 17 total innings in the big leagues with three starts and two relief appearances. He’s made two rehab starts and worked up to 80 pitches in a Triple-A appearance where he went 4 1-3 innings and threw 50 strikes. The Jays hit him hard in his last MLB start.  

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

Blue Jays vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Jays closed as -145 favorites last night and opened tonight’s game at -170. In my opinion, the pitching advantage the Jays had yesterday with Ross Stripling on the mound was greater than the advantage they have tonight with Jose Berrios. The price is heavily taxed thanks to the Red Sox rolling out rookie Brayan Bello who is coming off the IL and has struggled with his first taste of the Big Leagues.

Bello gave up five runs over four innings (nine hits and two walks) in his last start which was vs. the Jays in Toronto. If the rookie can’t get deep, he’ll hand the ball over to a bullpen that used five pitchers for 19 outs yesterday. This is the reason for the 30-point difference for the visitors but I’m not laying -170 on Berrios with his inconsistencies. 

With a 5.39 ERA and a 4.88 FIP, Berrios’ numbers are deserved (5.35 xERA). Opponents have an insane .911 OPS against him on the road this year and he's entered each month this season with an ERA of 5.00 or higher.

Over his last 19 starts, the right-hander has allowed five or more runs seven times. Inconsistencies have plagued the pitcher this season and when he doesn’t bring his best stuff, he is getting hit very hard (Bottom 10% in barrel rate and hard-hit rate). 

Luckily for bettors, we can pivot off the moneyline and take a Toronto team total that sits at 5 (-118 at Caesars). I’m much more confident that the Jays can dispel Bello quickly and tee off on a bullpen that was used heavily last night but I don't trust Berrios.

The Jays are 9-for-20 vs. Bello this year with a 1.190 OPS, and two stolen bases. The lineup is back to full health with Springer taking over the leadoff spot. It showed how quickly it can put up a crooked number after scoring eight runs in the third inning last night — all with two outs. 

Berrios’ inconsistencies and this -170 moneyline price have me off the ML but this is a great spot for the Jays’ offense and I’m hitting the team total Over 5.  

Prediction: Blue Jays team total Over 5 (-118 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

Fenway Park is playing as the best hitter-friendly park, per Ballpark Pal, thanks to 90% humidity. If I’m comparing last night to tonight in terms of probability for runs, I like tonight’s Over 9.5 much more than last night, especially after the Boston bullpen’s usage in the opener.

The Jays saw another rookie in Josh Winckowski last night and he recorded just eight outs. Bello will be making his first start since early August thanks to a groin injury and the prospect will likely have a shorter leash today and won’t be asked to eat innings if he struggles early. That could leave the 26th-ranked Boston bullpen to pick up the slack.

Decent first step for Brayan Bello tonight as he begins a rehab stint at Triple-A Worcester. #RedSox https://t.co/YTwLfG6ijq

— Bill Koch (@BillKoch25) August 20, 2022

The Red Sox used their best middle relievers yesterday and it’s highly probable that Boston will be digging into the pen by the fifth inning or earlier. THE BAT has Bello projected for just 84 pitches in his first start off the IL.

The Boston lineup isn’t 100% healthy, as I mentioned in yesterday’s preview, but some of the banged-up players hit the bench early in the Toronto blowout and got some needed rest. The move to sit Xander Bogaerts seemed more precautionary than anything thanks to the lopsided score.

Tommy Pham missing today doesn't change much in my projections for the Red Sox and he could even pinch hit if his back issue is not serious. This was once a Top-10 offense and still has plenty of talent throughout the entire lineup. 

Berrios has a 2.08 ERA vs. the Red Sox but with an ugly 6.9 K/9, Boston has been putting a ton of balls in play and with his struggles getting barreled, it wouldn’t surprise me if the home side had a big inning or two against Berrios.

I love the Jays’ offense tonight and my fear of the Jays’ ML thanks to Berrios supports the Over, as well. This total should be closer to 10 than 9 — especially with the setting today.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100 at Bet99)

Best bet

Jose Berrios hasn’t been fooling many batters this season. He sits in the Bottom 17% of the league in Whiff rate and is giving up a ton of hard contact. He’s a four-pitch pitcher and batters are hitting over .300 vs. his fastball, changeup, and sinker. 

His struggles on the road are legit this season. His K/9 is 6.9 on the road compared to 9.4 at home and he’s given up 15 home runs over 60 1-3 innings away from Rogers Center this season. 

While he won't earn a loss thanks to his #BlueJays erasing a 5-0 deficit to force extras vs MIN tonight, Jose Berrios did have another rough road outing as he couldn't make it out of the 4th. As this shows, his struggles away from home stand in stark contrast to his play at home pic.twitter.com/uowFDgRYiS

— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) August 6, 2022

The Toronto bullpen will also be ready to step in early as the A-pen hasn’t pitched since Sunday and the Jays have three solid middle relievers available. 

Over his last four starts, Berrios has thrown 80, 60, 73, and 95 pitches and THE BAT has him projected for 84 pitches and just 15.2 total outs. With an out market that sits at 17.5 (-105 to the Under), that makes his Under 17.5 total outs a solid +EV play. 

Jose Berrios Prop: Under 17.5 total outs (-105)

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