The Toronto Blue Jays did something neat yesterday by sort of winning both games of a doubleheader against the Boston Red Sox.
The first was a resumption of a game that was postponed due to rain back on June 26. Danny Jansen became the first player to play for two teams in the same game while George Springer hit his seventh home run to put him at 18 for the year.
With the wackiness behind them, my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions expect the visitors to continue tapping into their newfound offensive prowess. Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, August 27.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays team total Over 4.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Officially, the Toronto Blue Jays enter this game winners of five in a row, but it’s six if you count yesterday's resumption. Suffice it to say the Blue Birds are playing well as they continue their series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox.
The offense in particular has been rolling of late. Led by the red-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a young group of hitters getting more at-bats since the trade deadline, Toronto has plated 5.6 runs per game over the last eight and now ranks seventh in OPS and fifth in wRC+ for August, and I’m betting the Jays keep swinging the bats well tonight.
Toronto will dig in against Red Sox starter Cooper Criswell. The 28-year-old rookie has bounced back and forth between the big leagues and minors this season but has made 20 appearances, including 14 starts.
Criswell’s results have been, well, mixed. He has a 7.59 ERA during his latest stint, which started on August 3rd, but 4 2/3 innings of one-run, four-hit ball last time out has earned him the start tonight. Overall, Criswell ranks in the 54th percentile in expected ERA and the 30th in opponent expected batting average.
Criswell is a bit of a soft tosser with a sweeper and sinker being his primary pitchers, but opponents have a .518 and .458 slugging against those offerings, respectively, and if the Blue Jays are patient, they should be able to attack him tonight.
Additionally, the Red Sox bullpen might even be a bigger mess than the Blue Jays’ at the moment. Boston ranks dead last in the majors when it comes to reliever ERA, sitting at 6.25 in August with an xFIP that sits 23rd and a 27th-ranked strikeout rate.
The Blue Jays counter Criswell with Yariel Rodriguez, who has shown some promise but enters this game in a bit of a slump, so I’m going to look at the Jays’ team total, which sits at 4.5. They’ve hit the Over on that number in six of their last seven games. They should make it seven of right tonight.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
We’ve seen the price on Vladdy's RBI prop drop as he's heated up but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still value in the bet.
Guerrero continued his assault on baseballs yesterday by collecting three hits over the two-ish games. The Blue Jays star slugger is now hitting .321 with a .955 OPS, 27 home runs, and 87 RBI for the season and August might be his hottest month yet.
Guerrero enters this game with a .374 average and a 1.192 OPS over 22 games this month, which includes 16 extra-base hits and 15 RBI.
Here’s another stat to tell you how locked in he is. Vladdy has struck out seven times this month. Pretty good. And with a good matchup against Criswell and the Red Sox bullpen, I'm backing him to drive in another run tonight. Hell, even at a lower price, our Covers Prop Projections still call this a five-star play.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox live odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +125 | Boston -150
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -150 | Boston -1.5 +125
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as +125 underdogs and that's where the line remains as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- It looks like there is some value on the Blue Jays as road underdogs considering their current form and the Red Sox struggles with the pitching staff.
- The total hit the board at 9.5 and has yet to move off the opening number.
- The Over is 5-2 when these teams play this season seeing an average of 9.7 total runs per game.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games for +5.35 Units and a 8% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (1-5, 4.33 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (5-4, 4.41 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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