The Blue Jays (34-23) have been surging, going 12-3 over their last 15 games.
The lineup has been a force in recent days, blasting 21 home runs since the calendar flipped to June. The Jays took Game 1 of this Detroit Tigers series with a dominant 10-1 victory thanks to eight strong innings from Jose Berrios.
Detroit has dropped to 23-34 on the season and is desperate to string together a few Ws. Will the Tigers get back in the win column Saturday?
Check out MLB picks and predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers on Saturday, June 11 to find out.
Blue Jays vs Tigers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Tigers opened +195 but the line has widened in most spots. Detroit can now be had from as low as +190 and up to +225 depending on the book. The total opened at 8 but has since moved to 8.5 at most books, although an 8 is still appearing at the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions
Picks made on 6/11/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Tigers game info
• Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports
Blue Jays vs Tigers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (5-4, 2.78 ERA): After two productive years in San Francisco, Gausman has been excellent across his first 11 starts for Toronto. His 2.78 ERA is superb, and his 3.03 xERA doesn’t lag far behind. The most encouraging part of his profile is a stellar 1.60 FIP. It’s relatively simple: he strikes out a lot of batters (10.2 per nine innings) while limiting walks (0.97 per nine) and hard contact (4.2% barrel rate).
Beau Brieske (0-5, 4.93 ERA): Well, an 0-5 record certainly isn’t what Brieski was hoping for to begin his career. The 24-year-old right-hander has been roughed up across his 42 innings in eight starts, and his 6.43 xERA is about as bad as they come. His 6.54 FIP is very concerning, although at least his 4.93 xFIP indicates a little positive regression. Opposing batters have had no issue making hard contact, as Brieske’s 10.7% barrel rate ranks dead last in the MLB among qualified starters.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Out), Andrew Vasquez RP (Out), Tim Mayza RP (Out), Tayler Saucedo RP (Out).
Tigers: Robbie Grossman LF (Questionable), Jeimer Candelario 3B (Out), Victor Reyes LF (Out), Daz Cameron CF (Out), Jake Rogers C (Out), Jose Cisnero RP (Out), Tyler Alexander RP (Out), Kyle Funkhouser RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the Blue Jays’ last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Blue Jays vs Tigers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Toronto bats have been red hot. Since the calendar flipped to June, the Blue Jays rank first in the MLB in batting average, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ by a substantial margin in each category. They now sit at 34-23 and are in second place in the AL East, although they’re 7.5 games behind the New York Yankees.
Toronto should have a substantial lineup advantage on Saturday. This will be a matchup between the league’s best offense over the last 10 days (Blue Jays) and the worst offense over that span (Detroit). The Tigers rank dead last in both wOBA and wRC+ in June.
Toronto also has a substantial starting pitching advantage. Gausman’s 2022 statistical profile doesn’t have any holes. His 2.78 ERA is solid, but his 1.60 FIP is excellent. He strikes out plenty of batters (27.5% K-rate) while doing a fantastic job of limiting free passes (2.6% walk rate).
Beau Brieske will be on the mound for Detroit and his profile is the polar opposite of Gausman's. He’s 0-5 across eight starts and has the highest barrel rate (10.7%) among qualified starters. A 6.43 xERA and 6.54 FIP indicate he’s in for a rough time in the MLB until he makes the needed adjustments.
Toronto has been putting up crooked numbers on the scoreboard and they should be able to here in a favorable matchup. Gausman, meanwhile, should cruise against the league’s coldest lineup. This handicap is all Toronto.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-233 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Handicapping this total is relatively simple — we can expect plenty of runs from Toronto, but should have low expectations from Detroit.
The Blue Jays should do damage against Brieske, who has one of the league’s worst statistical profiles among starting pitchers. He allows hard contact and isn’t efficient on the mound. He’s a young kid who still has plenty of time to make adjustments, but learning on the fly is a dangerous proposition against a Toronto team that’s swatted 21 home runs in the last 10 days alone.
How much can we expect Detroit to contribute to the total? Across the last 10 days, Detroit has the third-highest strikeout rate (26.8%) in the league while swatting just one home run. The Tigers rank last in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ in that span. A matchup with Gausman and his superb 1.60 FIP doesn't indicate a successful day at the office.
The Over is 8-1 in the Blue Jays’ last nine games vs. a right-handed starter and 13-3 in their last 16 games overall. Toronto could hit this total on their own, so I have to lean with the Over. Some books are still showing a flat 8, so I’ll take a poke before it moves to 8.5.
Prediction: Over 8 (-117 at BetRivers)
Best bet
I’m targeting Toronto with my best bet. I still think there’s value on the money line in some spots, but there are several alternative ways to attack this handicap.
I like several prop bets on the board. Blue Jays -1.5 (-145), Gausman to record a win (-140), and Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150) all seem like they have a good probability of hitting, but I want to target a prop with less juice as the best bet.
Toronto’s team total is listed at a flat 5 at FanDuel, with -110 odds to both sides. The Blue Jays have been the hottest offense in the league by a wide margin and face off with Brieske, who has an ugly 6.43 xERA and 10.7% barrel rate. Give me the Over.
Pick: Toronto team total Over 5 (-110 at FanDuel)
