The Toronto Blue Jays have taken two of the first three games against the New York Yankees and will look to put an exclamation point on this four-game set in the series finale.
Toronto hasn't exactly mashed its way to victory but has managed to win twice (as an MLB betting underdog) by keeping the Yankee bats silent, including getting by New York ace Gerrit Cole.
Tonight's Blue Jays vs. Yankees matchup again sees Toronto sitting at plus money — read on to see if our free MLB betting picks and predictions are leaning with the Jays to make it three out of four in the Bronx.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at Yankees -127 but as of 1:30 p.m. ET, New York generally shifted into the -135 range, with Toronto sitting anywhere from +105 to +120. The total opened at 8.5 and has remained at that number, although keep an eye on the status of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez — if they happen to get a day off, that number could move.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 4/14/2022 at 1:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Jays to win + Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run BOOSTED to +700 (was +450) at bet365! Claim Now
B) No runs in the first inning of Jays/Yankees and Tigers/Royals BOOSTED to +285 at Unibet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Thursday, April 14, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, YES
Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (0-0, 5.40 ERA): After finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting last year, Gausman had a so-so Blue Jays debut last Saturday, giving up three runs on eight hits (seven singles) with five strikeouts in five innings against the Rangers. The lanky righty threw 71% of his pitches for strikes but had a hard-hit percentage of 52.9% in that game (well up from his 40.9% mark in 2021), with his fastball getting hit particularly hard (5-for-9 on FBs put in play).
Luis Severino (0-0, 6.00 ERA): The Yankees have waited patiently for Severino — who was an All-Star and finished Top 9 in Cy Young voting in both 2018 and 2019 — to finally be healthy again as he's pitched a total of 18 innings over the last three years. New York is also understandably going slow with the now 28-year-old righty, having him throw 65 pitches in 3+ innings in his first outing against the Red Sox, where he logged five strikeouts but also gave up five hits and two runs — including a home run. His velocity still looked good in that start, reaching triple digits on his fastball, but his command was a little shaky — getting ahead in the count against just half of his batters faced.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B (Day-to-Day), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Day-to-Day), Danny Jansen C (Out), Ryan Borucki RP (Out).
Yankees: Ben Rortvedt C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.
Blue Jays vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
If you read our odds analysis above, we cautioned that lines could move if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez get a day off after both got nicked up last night (Hernandez tweaked his side while Guerrero's right hand got stepped on).
However, we don't see any way Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo can rest two of his stars, especially after Guerrero was a one-man wrecking crew last night. The current AL MVP odds co-favorite put on a show against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen, going 4-for-4 with three home runs, a double, and four RBI — including taking a 98 mph Cole fastball that was well inside... and depositing it deep into left-center field.
lol Vladdy hit this 427 feet pic.twitter.com/GZef4HU0y1
— Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA) April 14, 2022
And that was after Vladdy Jr.'s hand was busted open when Aaron Hicks stepped on him running out a base hit.
It further highlights why Guerrero is among the most terrifying hitters in baseball, as he's sporting a .391/.417/.957 slash line early in the season. We also mean no disrespect to Hernandez, who is "only" hitting .316 (with a .435 OBP), while George Springer is sporting a .370 average for good measure.
We already know that Toronto's offense is scary (and scarier than the Yankees) but the chasm between these lineups early in the season is bigger than you'd think. We wouldn't say the Yankees' biggest bats — Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu — are struggling (combined .280 average, seven HR) but they aren't matching the Jays' big boppers.
Even worse, however, is the disparity at the bottom of the order, where the Jays have the likes of Santiago Espinal (.278) and Matt Chapman (.190) — but that is leaps and bounds ahead of the Yankees having Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka hitting a combined 2-for-35 (.057). Woof.
We haven't even mentioned Bo Bichette, who hit .298 with 29 homers last year but is in a 1-for-20 slump entering tonight, so some positive regression is on the way, but you get our point: Toronto's offense is better top-to-bottom than New York right now. Advantage Jays.
What about the starting pitching though?
Well, that's also leaning towards Toronto. Kevin Gausman wasn't dominant in his Toronto debut, giving up eight hits and three runs in five innings against Texas. It's worth noting, however, that his fastball was particularly hit hard and seven of the eight hits allowed came against left-handed batters (all singles), as righties went 1-for-7 in that game.
The Yankees are a righty-heavy lineup and have been bad against fastballs early in the year, with -0.50 runs above average per 100 fastballs faced (24th in the MLB per Fangraphs), which should work to Gausman's favor as his devastating splitter already looks in midseason form.
On the flip side, the first inning will mark Luis Severino's 24th regular-season inning pitching since the start of the 2019 season, as he finally looks healthy after myriad arm and shoulder ailments.
His velocity looked good in his season debut, but Vladdy & Co. currently sit tied for fifth in the Majors in hitting fastballs and it's unlikely Severino goes deep into the game, meaning New York will have to lean on a bullpen that likely won't have two of its top arms in Jonathan Loaisiga (pitched two straight days) or Chad Green (threw 22 pitches yesterday).
Toronto has a better lineup, a more reliable starter, and a better matchup for that opening arm. Add in that we're getting the Jays are plus money and it's just too good for us to pass up.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Let's just be clear on something: While we're expecting the Jays to score more runs on Severino than the Yankees will on Gausman, we're not forecasting a massive offensive outburst in the Bronx.
Despite having 23 hits in the series (18 in the two wins), Toronto has gone just 3-for-21 with RISP through the first three games against New York, with six of its nine total runs coming via long balls.
The Yankees may not have Loaisiga or Green available today, but the top relief arms available — Clay Holmes, Ron Marinaccio, Michael King, plus Aroldis Chapman — have yet to give up a home run in a combined 12 1-3 innings this year, so they should be able to contain the damage the feisty Jays bats will do.
As for the "Bronx Bombers," they're not exactly living up to that moniker right now. Yesterday's 10-hit effort was just the second time they've registered double-digit hits this season — and included four hits in one inning against a gassed Jose Berrios.
New York has managed just five multi-hit innings this series and through six games overall is averaging just 3.5 runs per game — with a six-run effort in extra innings on Opening Day marking the only time the Bombers have topped four runs.
Yesterday's contest went Over the total, but the Under hit in the two previous games, 10 of the last 13 meetings in the Bronx, and 15 of the last 23 head-to-head matchups overall.
We'll bank on the Yankees offense continuing to struggle — and the Jays' bats staying just quiet enough — for this to sneak Under tonight's total again.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-105 at PointsBet)
Best bet
Simply put, the Jays can hit. We're not just talking "crush the ball 400 feet" kind of hits, but just regular old hits-hits. Toronto is tied for sixth in the MLB in base hits and average 8.5 per game, which is slightly better than the Yankees' 7.5 hits per contest and 45 total base knocks (tied for 12th).
Contrary to our pick tonight is the fact that the Yankees have outhit the Jays in two of the first three games. However, we're loving the matchup for Gausman tonight (Yank's righties will struggle against his FB and nobody will hit his splitter), so we think the resulting lowered hit total for New York will be just the edge we need for the Jays' hitters to put in work.
Severino may not get rocked tonight, but he will give up some hits — as well the bullpen — which has us leaning toward the better lineup to finish the game with more base hits... at an enticing price of -115.
Pick: Most hits - Toronto (-115 at FanDuel)
