Major League Baseball’s opening weekend is complete, and Monday sees teams moving into their second series of the season.
With small amounts of data available, there's still a ton of value available when scouring the MLB player props. Here are my MLB picks for Monday, March 31.
Best MLB player props today
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Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at Caesars) -
Ozuna Under 0.5 hits (+126 at Caesars) -
Manzardo Over 0.5 total bases (-117 at Caesars)
MLB props for March 31
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at Caesars)
Kyle Schwarber is off to a great start. In three games against the Nationals, he registered two multi-hit games and a pair of home runs. Now he gets a pitcher he’s owned on Monday afternoon.
Schwarber has stepped into the batter's box on 17 occasions to face Colorado pitcher German Marquez. He’s come away with six hits in 14 official at-bats, including two home runs and a double, while striking out just twice.
It’s not just the raw stats that have me all over this prop. Dig a bit deeper, and you notice how well the Philadelphia slugger sees what Marquez is dealing to him. Schwarber has just a 14.8% whiff rate against the RHP, and the balls he’s put into play have an average launch angle of 25.4 degrees.
This will be Marquez’s second appearance since May 2023, after he pitched just four innings last July following Tommy John surgery before getting shut down again. I don’t see him getting through the full order twice, as he’ll likely be on a pitch count and had a very rough Spring Training.
Thankfully, Schwarber is expected to lead off and will play with a heavy wind blowing out to center in a park with short fences. He’s also benefitting from a weather forecast that BATX lists as the second-most suitable conditions for hitters.
It’s not a coincidence that Schwarber, who already has homered in two of his three games, holds the shortest odds of any player in this contest to go deep. Given that fact, the safer and smarter play is to back him to get 2+ total bases on the day.
Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 hits (+126 at Caesars)
The Atlanta Braves have had a rough start to the season, and their bats have gone fairly cold. Perhaps no hitter has struggled more than cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna.
While his seven walks in four games are fairly impressive, he’s already struck out five times in four games and has put just four pitches into play. While he recorded a pair of singles in his first two games, he’s posted an xBA of just .106 and has seen a noticeable dip in his exit velocity the few times he’s made contact.
He'll face Tyler Glasnow on Monday, a pitcher who's given him fits in the past. While Ozuna has three hits in 10 at-bats against the Dodger hurler, he’s also whiffed on 50% of his swings and has struck out six times.
Glasnow’s numbers in Spring Training were solid, holding opponents to a .200 average while striking out 19 batters in 11 innings. While he did give up four earned runs, that was on the back of a pair of home runs.
Glasnow’s been dominant in his career against Austin Riley and Matt Olson, who are a combined 2-of-19 against him. This means Ozuna is likely to come up with nobody on base. I like Glasnow to shut him down in possibly three at-bats, with the Dodger bullpen completing the job and keeping him hitless.
Kyle Manzardo Over 0.5 total bases (-117 at Caesars)
There’s a ton of hype around Kyle Manzardo right now, given his start for the Cleveland Guardians. In their three-game series against the Royals, the lefty DH came a single shy of hitting for the cycle on Thursday before hitting the game-winning home run on Sunday.
And while he went hitless Saturday, he walked in his first and last appearances while putting balls into play in the other two. He’s making solid contact, with a third of his nine balls in play having been hit hard and an average exit velocity over 90 mph.
Kyle Hart takes the mound for the San Diego Padres on Monday, and he didn’t do well last season against lefties or righties. He gave up four home runs in just 11 innings of work, and allowed six hits to LHB in just 18 plate appearances.
Manzardo will likely hit third behind Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas, which is great news. Kwan’s been finding ways to get on base often this season. While Thomas hasn’t been doing that well, he did hit .302 against LHP last season.
Oddly, Manzardo is just -117 to get a total base at Caesars, compared to -125 to get a hit. Take advantage of that discrepancy with this wager.
Not intended for use in MA.
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