The Miami Marlins will try to continue the momentum from an opening series win when they host the New York Mets for the start of a three-game series on Monday night.
Scoring has been limited for both teams to start the year, and that has me targeting the Under in my Mets vs Marlins predictions for tonight.
Let’s take a closer look at this NL East matchup in my free MLB picks for Monday, March 31.
Mets vs Marlins prediction
My Mets vs Marlins best bet: Under 8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
To say the New York Mets haven’t played an offensive brand of baseball this season would be a dramatic understatement.
Not only have they hit the Under in their first three games, but the combined total of any two of those contests wouldn’t have hit the Over for tonight’s game, as no total in their series against the Houston Astros was more than four runs.
New York will be pleased with how its pitching is holding up, which wasn’t unexpected heading into the season. However, the Mets have not seen anything from their new look offense, headlined by Juan Soto.
It’s too early to panic, of course, but the Mets sported a .476 OPS in their first series, the lowest mark in MLB. At least Soto has three hits and a homer in his first nine at-bats, but that’s about the only bright spot for the offense.
Thankfully, the Mets can ride the wave of strong pitching starting tonight when lefty David Peterson takes the mound. Peterson is coming off the best year of his career, posting a 10-3 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 121 innings of work.
He started to calm the control issues that had always been his weak point and allowed a career low 0.6 homers per nine innings even as he transitioned away from being a strikeout-first pitcher.
The Miami Marlins won three of four against the Pittsburgh Pirates to start their season, but they didn’t exactly light up the world offensively, either.
Miami averaged just four runs per game during that stretch, while allowing 3.5 runs per game in return, never playing to a total of more than nine runs in any individual game. This seems to be a running theme for much of the league — at least for teams that haven’t yet switched to the torpedo bats.
The one area of concern for Under bettors tonight might be Miami starter Cal Quantrill. The 30-year-old posted a 4.98 ERA last year for the Colorado Rockies, though his peripheral numbers did look slightly better away from Coors Field.
The Marlins aren’t expecting Quantrill to be much more than a solid back-end option in their rotation, and historically, he has been capable of filling that role.
But a proven, veteran pitcher — even a mediocre one — should be enough to keep a struggling Mets lineup in check this early in the season. Until we see New York break out, I’m not counting on the Mets to push totals towards the Over.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
David Peterson Over 4.5 strikeouts
Mets moneyline
While Peterson’s strikeout numbers were down last year, they improved late in the season, and the total is so low I expect him to get to five without too much trouble against a Marlins lineup that struck out an average of eight times in their first four games.
The advantageous pitching matchup is also why I like the Mets on the moneyline. Even as a strong favorite, a bet on New York adds value to our SGP.
If one team breaks out tonight, it will likely be New York, which should be able to generate at least some offense against Quantrill and anyone who comes out of the bullpen for Miami.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Marlins odds
Mets vs Marlins live odds
Mets vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -165 | Miami +140
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+105) | Miami +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Marlins trend
The Under is 3-0 in Mets games so far this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Marlins.
How to watch Mets vs Marlins and game info
| Location | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Monday, 3-31-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Florida, SNY |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (2024: 10-3, 2.90 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Cal Quantrill (2024: 8-11, 4.98 ERA) |
Mets vs Marlins latest injuries
Mets vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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