The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees enter their four-game set today in the Bronx in poor form but are both riding momentum from a pair of dramatic wins yesterday. The books have this an even game with New York getting the standard 30 points for home-field advantage.
So the question for me is: Would this be a pick ‘em on a neutral site and is home field worth 30 points for the Bombers? Find out in my free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.
Blue Jays vs Yankees odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Yankees opened as -140 favorites and have moved as short as -145. The total opened at 8.0 in some places but now sits at 8.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions
Picks made on 8/18/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get a no-sweat first bet (up to $1,000) at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) Aaron Judge to hit a home run boosted to +225 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Rogers Sportsnet, YES
Blue Jays vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (8-5, 5.61 ERA): Berrios continued his Jekyll-and-Hyde season in his latest outing which sent his ERA from 5.19 to 5.69. That makes two straight clunkers for the right-hander who has shown flashes of his elite talent this season but has masked it with plenty of duds. Berrios has been roughed up at Yankee Stadium this season (two starts) with eight runs allowed over 10-plus innings of work but both those starts came in the first two months of the season when New York was killing the ball.
Frankie Montas (4-9, 3.59 ERA): Montas has made two starts for the Yankees since coming over from the Athletics and has mixed in a decent start with a poor one in his debut. He’s totaled eight innings and has allowed eight runs and five walks with six punchouts. This will be his first start at Yankee Stadium as a member of the Yankees. Over the second half of the season, opponents have a .910 OPS vs. Montas but a lot of that could have something to do with the uncertainties and adjustments being on the trade block bring.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in the Yankees' last eight overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Blue Jays vs Yankees picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is not the same New York team from the first four months of the season as the Yankees are 17-24 straight up since the beginning of July and are averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Carpenter are on the shelf as well as elite center fielder Harrison Bader who they acquired at the deadline.
The bottom of this New York order consisted of Oswaldo Cabrera, Louis Trevino, Estevan Florial, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa yesterday and managed just a single combined run in an eight-run performance. This is as weak a lineup as New York has trotted out all season and D.J. LeMahieu is also banged up and hasn’t started a game since Saturday.
One-through-nine, the Jays are the better lineup today and despite a cold run at the dish — much like the Yankees — when you have Bo Bichette and Santiago Espinal in your lower third, you have the advantage offensively.
To make things worse for the home side, the New York bullpen continues to deal with injuries. Once-closer Clay Holmes is out and Miguel Castro is on the shelf. Aroldis Chapman and set-up man Scott Effross also threw 24-plus pitches in yesterday’s extra-inning victory.
The Toronto pen comes in rested and is pitching well since the deadline.
I also don't see an edge for the Yankees in starting pitching. Frankie Montas hasn’t looked great since coming over at the deadline the shoulder issues that circulated during that period are worrisome. Jose Berrios also enters today in poor form making both starters pretty big question marks despite a big difference in ERAs.
Heading into today, I see the Jays as the better team thanks to a much better lineup and the New York bullpen dealing with its own issues and usage.
The next question here is do the Yankees have a big home-field advantage vs. the Jays?
Montas will be making his first start at Yankee Stadium which is a big moment for any player — especially one coming from Oakland. That certainly cuts into the home-field advantage for the Yanks but this is also a team that is 8-8 SU at home since July 1 with series vs. the Reds, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners, and Rays.
New York hasn’t won a series at home vs. a team with a .500 record since June 16. It might own a league-best 37-12 SU record at home, but those numbers are built on the back of an incredible start to the season and sub-.500 teams.
I see Toronto as the better team today and the home-field pricing might be overblown for a weak New York lineup.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (+130 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
With the question marks surrounding both starting pitchers’ current form and the state of both offenses, this is a total that I'm not touching.
If the New York lineup was at full strength, this total would be 9.0. Berrios could also retire batters in bunches with the back half of this Bronx lineup not very threatening. Although I think the Jays have the offensive advantage, this can still be a frustrating lineup that gives away at-bats and has scored in just seven of their last 52 innings — 1.2 different innings per game.
Yankee Stadium is playing as the second-best pitcher-friendly park today which might be another reason this total sits at 8.5 and leans to the Under. In the last three meetings (in Toronto), the totals closed at 9.0 twice and 8.5.
As we saw yesterday, both of these offenses are capable of hanging big numbers but with the recent inconsistencies coupled with two starters who are tough to handicap, I’m off the total but lean to the Under as both bullpens could settle down the later innings.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
I haven’t been too kind to Frankie Montas as he hasn’t adjusted greatly to the pinstripes, but the market may have overreacted on him.
His out total currently sits at 16.5 and is -115 at DraftKings while some other sharp books have it at 17.5.
He hasn’t thrown more than 78 pitches as a Yankee but still recorded 15 outs in his last turn. Since New York needed 4 2-3 innings from the pen last night including high pitch-count innings from Chapman and Effross, Montas should see a longer leash today vs. a Jays team that is hitting .213 over the last seven days.
THE BAT has him projected for 93 pitches and nearly 18 outs which makes an implied 16.55 outs from the odds an easy +EV play.
Frankie Montas Props Pick: Over 16.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
