The Toronto Blue Jays go for a statement sweep of the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre this afternoon as these two World Series contenders collide again.
This series kicks off an important homestand for the Blue Jays, and they’ve delivered so far. After Chris Bassitt’s complete game shutout in Friday night’s win, Toronto rallied yesterday for a 5-2 win, sparked by a two-RBI day for Bo Bichette.
The Braves are setting the pace in the NL East, but their explosive lineup has struggled in this series. The visitors have scored just two runs in the two games in Toronto, and they’re going with a bullpen game this afternoon, with Collin McHugh in the opener role.
Get a closer look at this Sunday, May 14 matchup with our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Blue Jays.
Braves vs Blue Jays odds
Braves vs Blue Jays predictions
The Atlanta Braves bullpen has an uphill battle on its hands this afternoon. I expect to see a steady flow of relievers for the Braves, and the Toronto Blue Jays should have an advantage with Yusei Kikuchi (5-0) on the mound.
The visitors’ lineup hasn’t seen a lot of Kikuchi. In fact, only Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Eddie Rosario have faced the Toronto lefty. While Olson has had some success (two homers, but a .250 average), this afternoon’s matchup is nicely positioned for Kikuchi to be on the attack.
It also helps that the Blue Jays have dominated the Braves in recent years, winning the past eight meetings (and the last five at Rogers Centre).
The Blue Jays had nine hits yesterday and I see the hosts getting solid production at the plate again here. Bo Bichette, the AL hits leader, is coming off another two-hit afternoon and Kevin Kiermaier (.311 average) is continuing his quest to be the best No. 9 hitter in baseball.
I expect the hosts to get off to a hot start against McHugh and the other Braves relievers, and I’m taking these odds for Toronto to be in front after five innings.
My best bet: Blue Jays first-five moneyline (-110 at SIA)
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Braves vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Kikuchi comeback tour is chugging along impressively, with his miserable 2022 season fading from memory with every poised start. The lefty is 5-0 this year and he cruised through his last outing, throwing 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates last weekend.
In that sense, it’s a little surprising that Toronto isn’t a clear favorite with the oddsmakers. While sweeping a team as talented as the Braves is a tall task, Kikuchi boasts a 3.35 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season, and Atlanta has lost its last four interleague road games against teams with a winning record.
As I’ve outlined above, I like Kikuchi to keep the Atlanta hitters off balance, and the Blue Jays have won the lefty’s last four starts in Game 3 of a series.
Braves vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
This has been a low-scoring series so far, but a 9.5-run line suggests this afternoon’s game could get the scoreboard rattling along. There’s good reason to expect a jolt in scoring today, with the Braves and Blue Jays both ranking in the Top 10 in runs and batting average this season.
The Atlanta bats have been especially quiet in this series, but Marcell Ozuna went deep in yesterday’s loss while Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley also had base hits. The Braves at least produced better at-bats against Jose Berrios after being completely shut down by Bassitt on Friday night (two hits, no runs).
With the visitors essentially opting for a bullpen game today, it’s tough to assess the impact on the total, but the numbers point to the Under. That’s hit in Atlanta’s last four road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5, and it’s 10-1-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 12 home games against a right-handed starter (though McHugh may only feature for a few frames).
Braves vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, May 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southeast |
Starting pitchers
Collin McHugh (0-0, 3.38 ERA): Though he knows his way around a starting role, McHugh has been on bullpen duty this season and hasn’t pitched more than three innings. The 35-year-old has experience in his favor, but he barely lasted an inning in Wednesday’s loss to the Red Sox, allowing two runs on three hits.
Yusei Kikuchi (5-0, 3.55 ERA): Aside from a shaky start in Boston early this month, Kikuchi has served up some of his best stuff over the past month. He’s allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts, and he’s got more or less even batting average splits against righties (.256) and lefties (.261) this season.
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These Blue Jays get up for the big games. They’re 10-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a win percentage higher than .600. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Blue Jays
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