Pitchers and catchers are heading to training camps and spring training games are right around the corner.
With most of the offseason transactions behind us, it’s the perfect time to take a lay of the land and lock in MLB picks and predictions for MLB win total odds ahead of the upcoming 2025 season.
American League win total picks
Chicago White Sox Over 51.5 wins (-130 at bet365)
Collecting 52 wins would give the Chicago White Sox a .321 winning percentage and an 11-win improvement on last year’s horrific 41-121 record (.253). Both FanGraphs (62.3) and The BatX (66.2) have the White Sox pegged to fly over this pedestrian total while still finishing with the fewest wins in the American League.
There weren’t sweeping offseason changes — beyond trading Garrett Crochet — and while Chicago has a solid minor-league system, there isn’t likely to be immediate help on the way in 2025.
This is simply a nod that after a historically bad 2024, the White Sox will find a way to only lose two-thirds of their games this year.
Seattle Mariners Over 83.5 wins (-125 at BetMGM)
The Seattle Mariners have averaged 88.25 wins per season over the past four years, and I’m expecting a huge bounce-back showing from star center fielder Julio Rodriguez. He dipped to a 3.8 WAR in 2024 after posting identical 5.8 marks his first two seasons in the bigs, with last year’s 116 wRC+ and .136 ISO both career-low marks.
Of course, I also give Seattle a true home-field advantage, with T-Mobile Park typically playing as one of the most pitcher-friendly stops in the majors. It pairs well with the Mariners arguably trotting out the best starting rotation in baseball, too.
Buy low on Seattle.
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National League win total picks
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 85.5 wins (-110 at BetMGM)
The Arizona Diamondbacks won 89 games last season, and I expect them to flirt with 90 wins in 2025 because of the addition of Corbin Burnes combined with a pending rebound from star center fielder Corbin Caroll.
Burnes bolsters an already star-studded rotation and has topped 190 innings in each of the past three seasons since winning the NL Cy Young Award in 2021. Additionally, his career 3.19 ERA is right in line with his career 3.18 xFIP and he’s won double-digit games in four straight years.
Turning to Caroll, a slow start had a major impact on the Snakes, and his 4.0 WAR and .256 BABIP when it was all said and done were well below his 5.4 and .325 marks from his 2023 Rookie of the Year campaign. The sky’s the limit for Caroll as he enters his prime.
Chicago Cubs Over 85.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings)
The PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus forecast 90.7 wins for the Chicago Cubs, and there are reasons for optimism with superstar Kyle Tucker bringing an elite bat to the heart of the order.
It’s a sneaky supporting cast around Tucker, too. More of the same from Michael Bush, Matt Shaw arriving as advertised, and Pete Crow-Armstrong building on his 2024 second half (104 wRC+) this year would make the Cubs a deep and difficult lineup to navigate.
Additionally, the bullpen received a boost with the signing of Ryan Pressly, and the 36-year-old righty has experience in the closer role. Chicago relievers were tagged with the fourth-most losses (35) in the majors last season, so an experienced arm will help the bottom line. Plus, Porter Hodge showed off down the stretch and stands to have continued success in a setup role.
