Braves vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Braves Bash Houser

Two first-place teams square off for Game 2 at American Family Field on Saturday as the Atlanta Braves (63-33) face the Milwaukee Brewers (54-44). 

Atlanta captured a 6-4 victory in Game 1 to get back on track after dropping four of its previous five games. The Braves’ star-studded lineup will look to continue piling on damage as MLB odds favorites in Game 2. 

Will Atlanta continue its dominance over the National League, or will Milwaukee stand strong at home? Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Braves vs. Brewers on Saturday, July 22.

Braves vs Brewers odds

Braves vs Brewers predictions

Right-hander Adrian Houser gets the call for Milwaukee. Despite his decent 3.79 ERA, most of his profile is pretty underwhelming. 

The veteran ranks in the 15th percentile in xBA while failing to notch strikeouts (seventh percentile K%, second percentile Whiff%). He’s a sinker-baller who doesn’t generate much spin, ranking in the 14th percentile in fastball spin rate. 

He’s managed a pretty low barrel rate in his career and is in the 85th percentile this season. That’s essentially the only positive mark in his profile and it’s mitigated by the fact that he still gets hit decently hard — his 23rd percentile showing in hard-hit% and 31st percentile mark in average exit velocity paint a less-rosy picture. 

Houser relies heavily on his sinker (47%) and fastball (25%), but all four pitches in his arsenal have generated negative value this season. The Braves are the No.2 team this season against both fastballs and sinkers, so it could be a frustrating day at the office for the 6-foot-3 starter. 

Atlanta has hit righties well all season, pacing the league with a .349 wOBA while ranking third with a 117 wRC+. 

Given my inclination to fade Houser, it’s all about finding the right bet at the right price. I’ll lay off the moneyline at -140 as the Braves will counter with Allan Winans as their starter. He’s making his MLB debut as a 27-year-old and was primarily a reliever in the New York Mets’ system until the Braves acquired him in 2022. His range of outcomes seems pretty big in this spot. 

I’ll target a prop that has a bit more clarity in my opinion by taking the Braves to go Over their team total of 4.5 as my best bet. This prop is available for -130 at current and I think that price is fair. 

I’d play that up until -140. If this number gets steamed, it’s also possible to take an Over 5 at some books for better odds — FanDuel is offering Over 5 (-106) at current, for instance.

Houser’s metrics are a bit troubling and his ERA is unsustainable, and he gets a tough matchup against an Atlanta team that averages 5.8 runs per game and hits the right-hander’s top two offerings very well. 

My best bet: Braves team total Over 4.5 (-130 at bet365)

Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay

Braves Over 4.5 runs (-130)

Houser Over 5.5 hits allowed (-145)

Harris Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

+350 at bet365

The first leg of this SGP will be my best bet for this game — Atlanta to score 5+ runs. The first correlated prop that I will add to this is Houser to allow 6+ hits. The 30-year-old holds an ugly 1.53 WHIP on the year and ranks in the 15th percentile in xBA. He pitches to contact, and the Braves offense is more than capable of making him pay for that approach. Houser has allowed more than 5.5 hits in each of his last three starts and in six of his last eight. 

The third and final leg of this SGP will be Braves outfielder Michael Harris to record 2+ total bases. The left-handed hitting 22-year-old is one of the brighter stars in the game and forecasts well here considering he has an .873 OPS against right-handed pitching in his career. He also rakes on the road, notching an impressive .854 OPS in away games (compared to .773 at home). He’s been seeing the ball well lately, with at least one hit in five straight games and in seven of his last eight. That brings our SGP to +350. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Braves are -140 at most books at the time of this writing, while the best comeback available on the Brewers is +125. 

While Milwaukee is playing at home, I don’t think that changes this handicap a ton considering the Brewers’ home record (26-22) is worse than the Braves' away record (31-14). 

There’s some unknown in this matchup as rookie Allan Winans gets the starting nod for Atlanta. He’s making his MLB debut after posting a 2.81 ERA at AAA this year. He posted strong numbers as a reliever in the Mets’ farm system and has continued that form as a starter since joining Atlanta, posting a 2.44 ERA at AA last season.

The projection systems seem to like the 6-foot-2 right-hander’s stuff, with the most bullish (ATC DC) calling for a 3.84 ERA and the most bearish (THE BAT) calling for a still-alright 4.40 ERA. 

He gets a bit of a soft landing spot against a Milwaukee lineup that ranks 24th in wRC+ (88) and 23rd in wOBA (.303) against right-handed pitching. 

Since I like their chances of offensive success in this spot as outlined in my best bet, the Braves are my preferred side on the moneyline.

The total is set at 9.5 across most books, although a flat 9 is also available. Be sure to shop around, as always. 

The Brewers have been an Under team (41-52 O/U) for much of the year, while the Braves have been the opposite (51-42 O/U). 

While I like the Braves chances of scoring runs, the rest of the handicap is a bit less sure. Both teams have great bullpens — Braves relievers have combined for a 3.57 ERA, while the Brewers’ relievers have notched a 3.84 ERA. Add in Milwaukee’s productivity issues as a lineup, and I much prefer the Braves team total than the full game Over. 

Trend to know

Atlanta is 13-3 in its last 16 games against National League opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers

Braves vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Allan Winans (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The 27-year-old will be called up to make his Major League debut. He’s been aces in AAA this year, notching a beautiful 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across 18 appearances (13 starts). It’s unclear how long his turn in the rotation will last with Max Fried on schedule to return soon, but he’ll look to make a strong impression during his first start and has a good matchup in which to do just that. 

Adrian Houser (3-2, 2.40 ERA): Houser has an odd profile in that his grotesque 1.53 WHIP doesn’t seem to match up with his perfectly fine 3.79 ERA. The 30-year-old hurler’s 4.25 xERA and 4.34 FIP both indicate some regression is due, which is understandable considering he doesn’t strike anyone out (15.5% K-rate) and struggles with walks (decent 7.6% BB-rate this season, but 9.5% in his career). 

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