Braves vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Value Lies With Road Braves

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a three-game series this weekend.

The two split the first two games of this series, with one team shutting out the other and only four total runs scored in two games. The Braves remain sluggish out of the gates with a 17-20 record.

While the Brewers have been pretty average this month, they still are 23-14 on the year and have a multiple-game lead atop the NL Central. 

Who will get the third and decisive game of this series? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Brewers Wednesday, May 18th.

Braves vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released last night. The Brewers opened up as -145 favorites. Since then, Atlanta has taken some money. They are now around -130 at most shops, with the Braves returning at around +120.

The total opened up at a low number of 6.5 and stayed there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Brewers predictions

• Prediction: Braves ML (+120)
• Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Burnes Under 8.5 Ks (+100)

Picks made on 5/18/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Braves vs Brewers game info

• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Wednesday, May 18, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Braves vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (4-2, 3.14 ERA): Fried has been a model of consistency for the last few seasons. He's not exactly been that dominant pitcher, but he is still very solid. This season, he has again done an excellent job of inducing soft contact. In addition, his "chase rate" on pitches is as good as it's ever been and ranks among the best in baseball. Unfortunately, fried is coming off one of the worst outings of the season so far. The Padres hit him hard for nine hits through six innings, and four earned runs. And if you watched that game, you felt the damage could have been worse than that. He was impressive the game before against this Brewers team with seven innings of work, and only one earned run given up. 

Corbin Burnes (1-2, 1.77 ERA): Opposing Fried is the opposite of Fried. Burnes can be dominant at times. Last season we saw that in what was indeed an exceptional year with an ERA of 2.42 and an expected ERA even lower than that. From strikeout rate to exit velocity, nearly every metric ranked near the top of the league. This year, he again relied on the same K rate as the key to his success. With all that being said, there are a few signals that Burnes could be due for a blowup given the right matchup. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity are all near the bottom of the league. In addition, his expected ERA is over an entire run higher than his actual ERA, suggesting that regression is due. The question is, when will that come? He's been terrific through May and gave up only four earned runs through 20 innings. That includes a six-inning outing against this same Braves team where he gave up just one run on six hits.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Ronald Acuna LF (Out), Eddie Rosario LF (Out).
Brewers: Willy Adames SS (Out), Andrew McCutchen RF (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Brewers' last four during Game 3 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers

Braves vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a fun pitching matchup today because we have a reasonable amount of data in a short timeframe. These pitchers squared off against each other less than two weeks ago, and both were impressive.

Burnes gave up one run through six, Fried gave up one through seven with the Braves winning 3-2. So I see pretty much a coin-flip scenario today, and because of that will roll with the value on the Braves. 

Last season, the Braves were one of the best teams in the league when seeing a pitcher for the second time. They scored more runs, hit more home runs, and generally made better contact with the ball. They scored 1.2 runs more when facing a pitcher than the second time around.

By comparison, the Brewers weren't good in those spots. Strangely enough, they were worse. They scored fewer runs, and virtually all numbers went down. The pitchers excelled against them even after a good start in the first matchup. That's a big part of the handicap here. The thinnest of margins can make significant differences in baseball, particularly when handicapping a fairly even pitching matchup. 

At the onset, I talked about how Burnes could be due for a blowup game (he could also be dominant once again), and maybe that's here? His success in the last matchup was primarily based on strikeouts. And, of course, that makes sense: the Braves swing at many pitches, and Burnes strikes out a lot of batters.

Perhaps they'll be more patient this time around at the plate. Again, history suggests they will. If they are? They can hurt Burnes. The two places he struggles are the two places they excel. Atlanta has the second-best barrel rate in baseball and a Top-10 exit velocity. 

My projections see this game as an accurate 50/50 preposition. Because of that, I'll side with the team that has the value and what I believe to be an edge not adequately accounted for. 

Prediction: Braves moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I've spoken at length about how Burnes could have a bad outing, but there is plenty of reason to think the Brewers could string a couple of runs together. That might be all it takes with such a low total.

Milwaukee has been shut out twice this season, and both times followed the next game with five runs. Here's to that trend holding accurate once more. 

Speaking of trends, before this series, they were screaming Overs when the Braves were playing. The Over had hit in five straight Atlanta games and seven out of the last 10. It's anecdotal, but it's hard for me to imagine that many teams holding these Atlanta bats down for too long. There's too much pop and too much talent.

The Brewers have done an excellent job of that through the first two games, but I can't expect that to continue, given the history of how they fare the second time against the same pitcher and the fact that the pitcher is due for some regression. 

Again, this isn't a firm belief, but my projections do have this going Over the posted total about 60% of the time. That's enough of an edge to grab us eking out the Over here. 

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Best bet

We're going to target Corbin Burns here for a number that I feel is too high. It's made even better than this is available at plus money. The best bet today is Corbin Burns' Under 8.5 strikeouts. 

This is just too big of a number for Burnes, even if the Braves strike out a lot. I sound like a broken record, but Atlanta generally has a lot of success when they see a pitcher the second time.

Add that to a few other contributing factors. Take, for instance, that Burnes is due for regression. He has one of the bigger expected ERAs to actual ERA differentials for pitchers in the league. Also, consider that even when Burnes was extremely impressive against this same Braves team 11 days ago, he didn't go Over this number. He finished that matchup with seven total strikeouts.

I think there are two ways we can hit this. One involves Burnes getting roughed up early and pulled. The other involves Burnes going deep into the game, but Braves batters being more patient at the plate. Either way, I think we're in a good position to cash this here and will be making it my best bet. 

Pick: Corbin Burnes Under 8.5 strikeouts (+100)

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