The Jays lost the series opener but did see some encouraging signs that Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s bat is coming alive.
I expect that to continue tonight as I target his total bases prop as my Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets best bet.
Find out why with my Blue Jays prediction and free MLB picks for this April 5 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for April 5
- Best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 bases
(+105 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 total bases
George Springer O 0.5 total bases
Chris Bassitt Under 2.5 Earned Runs
(+450 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vladdy!
Pick (+115 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays rolled into Citi Field yesterday and put up a goose egg in the team’s first road game of the season. However, there was one positive to take away from the 5-0 loss and that was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s successful approach at the plate.
Vladdy didn’t put the ball into the seats at Citi Field, but he got on base three times with a pair of singles and a walk. It was his first time reaching base safely three times in a game this season.
So perhaps he’s starting to heat up?
The Toronto slugger has his total bases prop set at 1.5 today and is offering plus-money on the Over.
I think that is an appealing wager.
He’s gone over this number in back-to-back games and has two or more bases in three of his last four games, seeing his OPS jump from .601 to .710.
Something I find appealing about Vlad's start to the season is how hard he’s hitting the ball.
It hasn't necessarily yielded many results just yet, with only three extra-base hits on the season, all of them being doubles.
However, his hard-hit rate leads me to believe that there should be some slug coming at some point.
Vladdy’s mashing the baseball with a 70% hard-hit rate so far this season, ranking him in the 97th percentile in all of Major League Baseball.
It’s only a matter of time before he smacks one out of the ballpark or starts cranking out line drives out to the wall for extra bases with regularity.
Additionally, his lone hit in six at-bats against New York Mets starter Griffin Canning was a home run.
Plus, Canning was hit hard last season, giving up 31 home runs and an American League-leading 99 earned runs in 2024.
So, if the Jays are going to put up crooked numbers against the Mets today, there’s a good chance that Vladdy is part of that success.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 total bases
George Springer O 0.5 total bases
Chris Bassitt Under 2.5 Earned Runs
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll stick with the best bet and take Vladdy Over 1.5 total bases.
Next up, we’ll continue to attack the total bases market and bet on George Springer to go Over 0.5 bases as well as he continues to swing a hot bat.
Springer has reached base safely in five straight games, all of which have seen him go Over his set total for today, averaging 3.2 bases per game in that stretch.
For the final leg of the SGP, we’ll ride with the Jays starter, Chris Bassitt, to stay Under 2.5 earned runs. Bassitt was great in his first outing this season, allowing just a single run against the Orioles.
He’s also been terrific against the Mets in his two career starts against his former club, going 2-0 with a .66 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13.2 innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Saturday, April 5, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (1-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (0-1, 3.18 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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