The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are fighting for the National League East Division lead, and tonight should be a highly contested affair. Can the Braves take a step closer to overtaking the first-place Mets?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for July 29, 2022.
Braves vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
New York opened as -125 favorites, and the line has moved up to -135 at some shops. The total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t budged.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 8/04/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Friday, August 5, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNY
Braves vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ian Anderson (9-6, 4.99 ERA): Dating back to 2021, Atlanta is 2-7 when Anderson pitches as the away underdog. Anderson has struggled a bit this season, and at one point, there was even talk about sending him down to Triple-A. The young righty pitched shutout ball against Arizona in his last start, with a one-hit gem with nine punchouts over six innings. The rediscovered curveball he’s recently begun throwing again should help improve upon his already solid numbers (4.28 xERA, 4.19 xFIP), and maybe cut down on his less than ideal walk rate of 4.37 per nine frames.
Taijuan Walker (9-2, 2.79 ERA): Walker has been forced to carry the injury-riddled Mets staff, and his stats across the board are solid (3.97 xERA, .385 xFIP). Since 2021, New York is 2-3 when Walker pitches as the home favorite, but he’s had very little run support this season (3.5). The strikeouts might be lower than his career numbers, but he’s walking less hitters and allowing fewer bombs per nine frames.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is a big weekend for both clubs, as one team will end this series in first place in the NL East. New York leads the division by the slimmest of margins and should feel very comfortable handing the ball to Walker.
The right-hander is 3-0 this season at home, and he’s allowed just nine earned runs while striking out six per nine frames pitched. It won’t be a cakewalk with Atlanta slashing .244/.305/.439/.744 against right-handed pitching, but Walker has been a workhorse all season long.
Atlanta also has a 25% strikeout rate, and that’s where Walker is going to have his way with the Braves tonight. He’s had great success against this current collection of Atlanta batters, and we can expect Atlanta to have trouble with Walker’s four-seamer and tough slider tonight. The Mets have scored 24 runs over Walker’s last five starts (4-1) and were shut out by the Marlins in an extra-inning loss.
Give Walker some run support, and New York usually wins. The Braves don’t win when Anderson pitches on the road as an underdog, despite plating just over six runs per outing. New York creates the sixth most runs in the game (wRC+ 111) against righties with a below-average strikeout rate and will find a way to plate a few runs.
Furthermore, New York is 31-17 at Citi Field and 33-13 overall against the NL East this season. It's hard to believe we got such a good price for the Mets tonight, but we’ll take it.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Citi Field is a big ballpark, yielding the 27th fewest runs and homers this season. Great pitching usually beats a good offense, but tonight we have very good pitching against some darn good offensive players, and I suspect we might see enough runs to topple Friday’s total.
Friday features some top WAR leaders in the game, including the Braves' Austin Riley (4.8), Dansby Swanson (3.8), plus the Mets' Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo (3.3). These players, as well as others such as the Mets Pete Alonso, can change the game with one swing of the bat.
New York's home contests have exceeded the total in 26 of their 48 matchups in Flushing this season (56.5 percent). Meanwhile, Atlanta's road contests have climbed above the total in 24 of their 46 games away from Truist Park this year.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
The Mets moneyline is our best play of the game. We’ve given you several reasons why we love the Mets tonight, but we haven’t mentioned the New York bullpen in general and, in particular, closer Edwin Diaz.
The New York bullpen ranks ninth in team ERA (3.61) and has blown just 14 of its 46 save opportunities this season. Diaz is striking out a whopping 18.14 batters per nine innings with an ERA of 1.51, xERA of 1.51, and 0.66 xFIP this season.
The Braves are also whiffing at a 25% rate against righties, and opposing teams are hitting just .177/.244/.245/.489 against Diaz this season.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)
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