The Atlanta Braves will try to snap a six-game losing streak as they visit the New York Mets for the third game of their weekend series at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon.
The Mets (55-48) have now overtaken the Braves (54-48) for second place in the NL East and are slight favorites again in the MLB odds for today’s game.
We’ll take a look at whether Atlanta can do anything to slow down the New York offense in my free Braves vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for July 27.
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (+100 at Caesars)
My analysis
It would have been hard to believe back in April, but the New York Mets now possess one of the most feared lineups in the league. From top to bottom, New York has a long lineup that can punish opponents, one that is averaging 5.05 runs per game for the month of July.
The key to the turnaround has been balance. The Mets have eight regulars with an OPS of .700 or higher, with the one exception — second baseman Jeff McNeil — heating up himself, having hit .371 with a 1.252 OPS over his last 10 games.
The 24-year-old Spencer Schwellenbach gets the task of slowing down that attack for the Atlanta Braves on Saturday. Schwellenbach has had some excellent moments in his rookie campaign for Atlanta, but his overall numbers (3-5, 4.62 ERA) won’t strike fear in the hearts of opponents just yet.
Nothing in particular stands out as a problem with Schwellenbach, but he isn’t a prolific strikeout pitcher — he’s sitting down 8.7 batters per nine innings — and has given up seven homers in his first 50 2/3 innings of work, two factors that have probably kept him from achieving excellence in his first campaign.
A night after watching Kodai Senga get back to the mound and dominate — only to suffer another injury — the Mets will turn to Tylor Megill, one of the mediocre arms that have tried to carry the Mets rotation in the absence of a true ace.
One day short of his 29th birthday, Megill is just 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA on the season. He has yet to put together a solid full season in the majors, though his peripherals are a bit better this year as he’s improved his strikeout rate to 11.3 per nine innings.
Unfortunately, that’s come with a similar rise in his walk rate, as Megill is allowing 4.4 walks per nine as well. He’s also struggled in his recent starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last 8 1/3 innings of work.
Neither starting pitcher is likely to shut down the opposition. We know how many runs the Mets can score, but Atlanta has plenty of professional hitters in its lineup as well, even without a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. to lean on.
On a warm summer day in Queens, the Over is the play.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Mets moneyline
Francisco Lindor to record a hit
The Over is my best bet of the day, so I’ll use it as the first leg of my same-game parlay as well. I’m going to pair that with a bet on the Mets to pull off yet another win at home this afternoon.
New York is the hottest team in the majors over the last two months, and while this isn’t the best pitching matchup for the Mets, they have the much better offense and are still deserving favorites.
Finally, I’ll take Francisco Lindor to get at least one hit today. Lindor had hit in 10 straight before going hitless last night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +103 | New York -111
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves continue to struggle on the moneyline, having lost more than 16 units this year. The Mets are up nearly six units on the season for bettors.
- New York is 2-6 in Megill’s eight starts this season, while Atlanta has a 3-6 record with Schwellenbach on the mound.
- New York has won each of the last three meetings between these teams, including the first two games of this series.
- The Mets are playing to an average total of 9.52 runs per game, while the Braves are averaging a total score of 7.95 runs.
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Braves vs Mets trend
The Mets have played Over today’s total in four of Megill’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (3-5, 4.62 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (2-4, 5.08 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
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