Kodai Senga will make his 2024 debut vs. the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field as he returns from the IL on Friday night for the New York Mets.
The Mets (54-48) remain one the hottest teams in the majors and are favored in the MLB odds over the Braves (54-47), who have lost five straight.
I’ll take a look at whether New York can continue winning and leapfrog Atlanta in the standings tonight in my free Braves vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for July 26.
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Kodai Senga came over to the United States last season with a reputation as a solid starter, and most pundits expected him to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm for the New York Mets. Instead, the 31-year-old proved to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the majors in 2023, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA in an otherwise disappointing season for his team. Senga finished second in the Rookie of the Year odds, and even got some votes in the Cy Young odds race.
Unfortunately for New York, Senga missed the first four months of 2024 with a shoulder strain and triceps inflammation, dealing one more blow to a Mets team that had few expectations of competing this year. But now, with New York scoring runs aplenty and back in playoff position, getting an ace back could be a game changer.
The Mets are now averaging 4.86 runs per game on the season, ranking sixth in the majors. However, that undersells how good they’ve been since the start of June. Over the last two months, New York is averaging an incredible 5.69 runs, a blistering pace that has led the team to a 30-15 record over that time.
During that same period, the Atlanta Braves have struggled to maintain their form. That’s largely due to the devastating knee injury that superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered in late May. With Acuna out of the lineup, Atlanta has put up just a 22-24 record, and what was possibly the best offense in baseball is now averaging just 3.89 runs per game since June 1.
While the Mets are as hot as anyone, the Braves are now ice-cold, losing five straight heading into tonight’s game. Starter Charlie Morton is still effective at age 40, but he’s pitching to a 4.05 FIP and a 1.219 WHIP, numbers that don’t feel promising against a Mets lineup that is ripping up just about every pitcher they face right now.
All signs point to a New York win tonight.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Kodai Senga Over 5.5 strikeouts
Over 7.5
I’m expecting a strong return to the rotation for Senga tonight, and that’s the basis of my same-game parlay. Along with taking the Mets to win outright, I’m also picking Senga to hit the Over on his strikeout prop total of 5.5.
Senga struck out at least six batters in 21 of his 29 starts last season, so that’s a reasonable number for him to hit against a Braves team that strikes out at an above-average rate.
However, I’m also taking the Over tonight to round out my SGP.
That’s not about the starting pitching matchup, but rather about the total, which is just a bit too low at 7.5 runs. With the way the Mets have been scoring runs over the last two months, I’m happy to take the Over on any low total whenever they play right now.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +112 | New York -121
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- While Atlanta has been one of the worst moneyline teams in the league, losing more than 15 units for bettors, New York has won nearly five units for their backers on the season.
- The Mets have won five of their last six games, while the Braves are riding a five-game losing streak.
- New York averages a combined total of 9.5 runs per game, while Atlanta comes in at an average total of 7.91.
- The Over holds a 54-45 edge when the Mets play, while the Under is a dominant 60-36 when the Braves have played this season.
Braves vs Mets trend
The Mets were 17-12 in Senga’s 29 starts in the 2023 season. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 7-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (5-5, 3.92 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Kodai Senga (12-7, 2.98 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
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