Coming off just missing out on a combined no-hitter, the Atlanta Braves will look to sweep the New York Mets as they wrap up their series tonight on Sunday Night Baseball.
As usual, there are lots of great MLB odds for the premier game of the week, and I’ve found a few of the best options for bettors tonight.
Here are my top MLB picks for Sunday, May 12. If you want more analysis for SNB, be sure to check out our full Braves vs. Mets predictions!
Braves vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball props
- Severino Over 2.5 earned runs (-133 at Caesars)
- Bryce Elder Under 3.5 Ks (+120 at DraftKings)
- Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 RBI (+185 at BetRivers)
Picks made on 5-12 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Braves vs Mets SNB props
Prop bet #1: Braves batter Severino
The Atlanta Braves came into 2024 expecting to have one of the best lineups in the majors. So far, so good.
The Braves are averaging a full five runs per game, are fifth in MLB with a .743 team OPS, and have a lineup full of players who are hitting leave average of better — with the notable exception of the struggling Matt Olson, who is hitting just .195 with an 87 OPS+.
If anything, the Atlanta offense is in a bit of a slow stretch, though that’s relative for an offense this good. After being largely shut down by the Dodgers last week, the Braves have won four in a row, scoring four or more runs in each outing. That includes the first two games of this current series against the New York Mets, where they’ve scored four runs each time.
Tonight, Atlanta faces off against Luis Severino, who has arguably been the most consistent starter for the Mets this season. However, Severino has shown some weakness over the last few starts, including his most recent outing when he gave up four runs in five innings to the Rays.
Severino is going relatively deep into games, averaging 5.71 innings per start. That works against him a bit on this prop bet, as the more time he spends facing this capable Atlanta lineup, the more runs he’s likely to allow. Mix his control issues — allowing 3.8 walks per nine innings — and declining strikeout rates, and this opens up a perfect opportunity to back these Luis Severino odds.
Luis Severino prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-133 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Mets Make Contact
While the Mets offense has gone through its ups and downs — who knows what’s going on with Pete Alonso — there’s been one aspect to their game that has stayed the same throughout the first six weeks or so of the season.
New York is a team that doesn’t strike out much. In 38 games, the Mets have only tallied 290 strikeouts and are only taking Ks at about a 19.9% rate. That’s one of the better marks in the majors, as New York’s 7.63 strikeouts per game are the seventh lowest average in the league.
That’s a pretty consistent pattern throughout the lineup. Outside of Starling Marte (22.9% strikeout rate) and the new addition to the lineup, JD Martinez (26.5%), there aren’t a lot of easy whiffs when you play the Mets.
Bryce Elder isn’t exactly a strikeout machine, either. The 24-year-old has never been a huge swing-and-miss guy, coming up in his rookie season by striking out just 7.8 batters per nine innings. That number has only come down, hitting 6.6 last year and 5.9 so far in 2024.
Elder hasn’t struck out more than four batters yet in a game this year, and the Mets should make regular contact against the righty. I’m backing Bryce Elder's odds to come in Under his strikeout total tonight.
Bryce Elder prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Ozuna on offense
While the world has marveled at how Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts have been crushing the ball for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Marcell Ozuna has not-so-quietly been putting up numbers just as good or better in Atlanta.
Heading into Sunday’s action, Ozuna leads the majors in both homers (12) and RBI (38). He's put up a 1.032 OPS and looks primed to improve on his excellent 2023 campaign (.274, 40 HR, 100 RBI).
Ozuna may not be quite as deadly against right-handed pitching, but anyone would take his numbers against righties. Atlanta’s designated hitter has put up a .993 OPS against right handers, homering every 11.9 plate appearances.
There’s also no sign of Ozuna slowing down. Over his last five games, the 33-year-old has hit .444 with three home runs and six RBI as he continues to be the engine for the Atlanta offense even as the Braves’ numbers come back down to Earth a bit.
The Braves will score against Severino, and Ozuna should end up at the heart of that attack. With some generous Marcell Ozuna odds on offer, I’m taking him to knock in a run tonight.
Marcell Ozuna prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+185 at BetRivers)
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