The Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres will continue their four-game set at PETCO Park on Saturday afternoon. The Braves appear to be suffering from a World Series hangover, having begun the season 4-5. They’ve split their first two games with San Diego to this point.
The Padres, seeking a return to the postseason after underachieving in 2021, are 5-4 over their first nine games. After crushing Atlanta 12-1 in their home and series opener on Thursday, their bullpen came apart in a 5-2 loss on Friday night.
Who will emerge victorious here?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs Padres on Saturday, April 16.
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Braves vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening as -114 consensus favorites, the Braves have dropped significantly at the majority of sportsbooks. They can now be had for as high as even money. Meanwhile, fast and furious action on the opening total of 8 saw the number rise to 8.5 at practically every major sportsbook early on Saturday morning, but some 8's have since reappeared.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Braves vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 4/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
Braves vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ian Anderson (0-1, 16.88 ERA): It was a season debut to forget for third-year starter Ian Anderson, as the Cincinnati Reds chased him in the third inning last Sunday after plating five earned runs. Anderson’s wildness reared its ugly head in that outing, as he allowed five bases on balls compared to just one strikeout. This will be his first career start against the Padres.
Nick Martinez (0-0, 1.80 ERA): Nick Martinez’s first start back in the MLB after four years in Japan was a strong one, as he allowed only one earned run to the San Francisco Giants over five innings of work on Monday. He struck out six batters while walking just one. However, his body of work in the majors from 2014 to 2017 left something to be desired, as he pitched to a 4.77 ERA over 415 1-3 innings with the Texas Rangers.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Out).
Padres: Blake Snell (Out), Austin Adams (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 1-4 in their last five road games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Braves vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Padres have plated two runs or fewer in three of their last four contests, but their 12-run outburst on Thursday is more indicative of what this lineup can do, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. on the sidelines.
San Diego didn’t swing for the fences in order to succeed on offense here, as Braves starter Ian Anderson can be quite obliging when it comes to the free pass. He walked five batters while recording only eight outs in his first start of 2022, and issued a bases on balls 31 times in 67 innings of work on the road last season.
The Padres are currently fourth in the majors in walks drawn (36). Anderson’s opponent batting average jumped from .207 at home last year to .234 as the visitor, so bettors shouldn’t be surprised if he struggles to settle into this one. Once Anderson departs, San Diego can attack the Braves’ 21st-ranked bullpen by ERA (4.21).
The Padres are hoping that Nick Martinez can replicate his first start for them, when he held a Giants team that won 107 games last year to one run over five innings. If he can keep Atlanta off balance early, the Friars could build a big early lead and never look back.
Prediction: Padres ML (-108 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
The Braves being sixth in home runs (nine) in this early part of the 2022 season is not all that surprising, but Adam Duvall failing to go deep to this point is.
Duvall hit 38 dingers a season ago, driving in 113 runs. He had the big two-run double in the eighth inning that decided Friday’s game with the Padres, so perhaps he’s turning the corner. Playing on the road could be just what the doctor ordered for Duvall, as he hit .252 with 22 homers outside of Truist Park last year, compared to .202 with 16 homers in his own stadium.
Duvall is far from the only dangerous bat in the Atlanta lineup, as Matt Olson (.367), Marcell Ozuna (.333), and Austin Riley (.303) are all currently batting above .300. Even if they’re unable to figure out Martinez, they should still have plenty of chances against a Padres' relief corps that ranks 27th by ERA (5.21).
Meanwhile, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have both been red-hot at the dish for San Diego. The former has 14 hits in his first 36 at-bats (.389), while Hosmer is 12-for-30 (.400), even after taking an 0-for-4 on Friday night.
Prediction: Over 8 (-117 at Unibet)
Best bet
PETCO Park historically favors pitchers, but the pieces are in place for Over bettors to cash on Saturday. Anderson tends to deal with tons of traffic on the bases, and the Braves bullpen is last in the majors in strand rate (57.8%).
Atlanta’s lineup packs plenty of firepower, and they get to face off with an MLB ex-pat and a beleaguered bullpen. The money has come in and run this total up from 8 to 8.5 at most places for a reason.
Any remaining 8's should be immediately jumped upon.
Pick: Over 8 (-117 at Unibet)
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