The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres begin their best-of-three Wild Card Series at Petco Park tonight.
Atlanta received some brutal news on the injury front yesterday and that has me backing the home side in my Game 1 Braves vs. Padres predictions.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this postseason clash on October 1.
Braves vs Padres prediction
Who will win Braves vs Padres Game 1?
The Atlanta Braves are in a tough spot after ruling out ace Chris Sale for this series due to back spasms. While the rest of the majors enjoyed a day off yesterday, the Braves played a doubleheader against the Mets and used up a pair of starters and a slew of relievers in the process.
With their pitching options diminished for Game 1, they'll be at a disadvantage on the mound, and with their lineup still missing two of their best hitters, they'll also have a tough time matching the San Diego Padres' firepower.
My Braves vs Padres best bet
Padres first five innings -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
With Sale out, the Braves are ultimately handing the ball to AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver's a good prospect but he's only 21 and pitched just 4 1/3 innings in the majors this season while posting a 4.86 ERA in 20 starts at Triple-A.
Atlanta is facing a big pitching disadvantage with the Padres sending Michael King to the mound. King has been excellent in his first year as a full-time starter, pitching to a sparkling 2.95 ERA with an OBA of .221. He's been even more dominant since the start of July, posting a 2.07 ERA with an OBA of .204 across 13 starts.
The Braves feature some hard hitters but their offensive production has been inconsistent and they've sorely missed 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., who suffered a season-ending injury in May. They got more bad news last week when it was revealed that All-Star third baseman Austin Riley would be unable to return this year since his hand hasn't healed sufficiently since breaking it in mid-August.
Meanwhile, the Padres are second in the majors in batting average (.267) and fourth in OPS (.768) since the All-Star break.
I like the Padres to win but there is a better option than playing the moneyline price at -180. The Braves boast one of the top bullpens in the majors so let's take that out of the equation and back the Friars to have a lead after five innings.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres F5 -0.5
Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts
Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 total bases
King has fanned at least six batters in 14 of his last 17 starts. He has racked up an impressive 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings during that span and now he faces a Braves lineup that is 22nd in the majors in strikeout rate (24.1%).
Jurickson Profar has put together a career season with San Diego, slashing .280/.380/.459 while ranking 34th in the majors with 259 total bases through 158 games. The switch-hitter has surprisingly been even more productive at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he slugs .528.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +130 | San Diego -155
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (-120)
Braves vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Padres, shifting their line from -155 to -180.
- The Padres have gone 43-19 since the All-Star break and finished the regular season tied with the Brewers for the fourth-best record in the majors at 93-69.
- The Braves snagged the final wild-card spot in the NL by beating the Mets last night. They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record while going 8-3 in their last 11 games.
- These teams have clashed seven times this season with the Padres going 4-3 and winning three of those games as underdogs. This will be King's first start against Atlanta.
Braves vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 85 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
Braves vs Padres Game 1 info
| Location: | Stadium, City, State/Province |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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