The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres face off at Petco Park on Saturday night.
With a strong pitching staff and a slumping lineup, the Braves have been the best Under team in the majors this year. My Braves vs. Padres predictions for today are expecting that trend to continue.
Here are my best free MLB picks for July 13.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves are giving the pill to Reynaldo Lopez, who has pitched to an incredible 1.71 ERA with an OBA of .209 through 89 2/3 innings. While he ranks in the Bottom 30th percentile in exit velocity and barrel rate, it's tough to argue with results. The Under has gone 11-3-2 in his 16 starts.
When Lopez comes out of the game, don't expect any drop-off from a Braves bullpen that is second in the majors with a 2.91 ERA.
The San Diego Padres are right around the MLB average in most batting categories and the absence of All-Star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. hurts. In their last 10 games, they've been shut out twice while being held to just a single run on three occasions, including last night.
San Diego is sending Dylan Cease to the mound and while he has a mediocre 4.21 ERA through 19 starts, his 1.10 WHIP and .217 OBA are impressive. There's a reason that Cease was the AL Cy Young runner-up just two years ago, and his xERA is much better at 3.68.
The hard-throwing righty does a great job at making batters miss and Atlanta's lineup struggles to make contact. The Braves started the season red-hot at the plate but are batting just .230 since the start of May. The season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna has only made things worse.
When you also factor in the run-suppressing nature of Petco Park, the Under is the play.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Marcell Ozuna 1+ hits
Since the start of May, Cease has fanned 8+ batters in eight of 13 starts. He's in the Top 10th percentile in strikeout rate and whiff rate while the Braves are 22nd in strikeout rate and 27th in whiff rate.
Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-4 at the dish against the Padres last night, which was his fourth-straight multi-hit game. He leads the Braves with a .301 batting average and backing him to get just one hit in this SGP creates a nice multiplier because of our other two plays.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-220) | San Diego -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -105 | San Diego -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Braves vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has in on the home side and the Under with San Diego's moneyline price shifting to -135 and most books moving the total to 7 as of noon ET.
- The Padres lost 6-1 last night and they have now lost five games in a row.
- Cease has pitched to a 6.92 ERA with a .270 OBA in his last five starts while Lopez has a 1.37 ERA with an OBA of .200 in his previous five outings.
Braves vs Padres trend
The Under has gone 51-26 in Atlanta's last 77 games (+26.40 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres
Braves vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (7-2, 1.71 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (7-8, 4.21 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
