The Atlanta Braves ambushed Carlos Rodon for eight runs early in Friday’s series-opening game in the Bronx, and now the New York Yankees will look to a different kind of pitcher in Marcus Stroman to level the score.
Unlike Rodon, Stroman can pitch to ground balls, which makes him a solid option in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. And, like Chris Sale on Friday, Charlie Morton should find a way to continue sitting down this offense on strikes. This is why my Braves vs. Yankees prediction sees a pitcher’s duel taking shape after Friday’s slugfest.
Let’s get right into it with our MLB picks for Saturday, June 22.
Braves vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I’m not normally one to wax poetic about Charlie Morton, but there are many things here that we simply can’t ignore. The first is the fact that he’s pitched brilliantly against the Yankees in his career with a 3.54 ERA in 13 outings, posting two fantastic starts in the postseason to boot.
The second is that Morton, despite hitting 40 years of age last year, continues to be an above-average strikeout arm and has offered reasons for belief this season with a .239 expected batting average and solid .381 expected slugging. Yes, he’s not quite racking up strikeouts like he used to, but Morton remains better than half of pitchers there and has married that with better numbers on contact thanks to a 44.8% ground-ball rate.
That’s what I really want to get into here — ground balls are going to be worth their weight in gold on Saturday. We saw the perils of pitching to fly balls in this stadium on Friday night as the Braves torched Carlos Rodon early, and the Atlanta Braves, in particular, are a very hard team to navigate around in such an environment, with their incredibly high fly-ball rate and home run-to-fly ball ratio.
Morton should have his shine here against a New York Yankees team that has been slumping ever so slightly of late and striking out a bit more. On the flip side, I expect Stroman and his 51% ground-ball rate to fare much better than Rodon did, given what we’ve laid out about the Braves’ mastery of hitting the ball in the air.
I do like the Yankees here, given that I trust Stroman more than Morton, but the total is far too high and should be bet down.
Braves vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Marcus Stroman 5+ strikeouts
Jarred Kelenic to record a hit
Marcus Stroman’s been walking a ton of guys of late, and he’s failed to produce very many strikeouts. Lucky for him, the Braves should take matters into their own hands here and help those two sore spots trend in the right direction.
Atlanta’s up near 27% in strikeout rate over the last week of play, walking at a microscopic 5.1% clip and swinging at just about everything. It’s been hard for Stroman to produce swings and misses this month, but I have faith in him hitting this low number given what we’ve seen.
Finally, we’ll back Jarred Kelenic to record a hit for a ninth straight game against a ground-ball arm, a matchup that hasn’t been kind to him over his career but one that should produce fruit, given the way things are looking for him. Hitting atop the Braves’ order, he should have plenty of chances to dunk one into the outfield, and at this price he’s hard to pass up.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Yankees odds
Braves vs Yankees live odds
Braves vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +120 | New York -140
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Braves vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees began the betting window close to -150 on the moneyline, but slight movement has pushed them to -143.
- The total opened up at 8.5 runs and, after fluctuating briefly, shot up to nine runs, with some marginal movement towards the Over.
- According to DraftKings, 70% of the bets and 75% of the cash are on the Yankees.
- Similarly, the Over accounts for 73% of the tickets wagered on the total and 70% of the handle.
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Braves vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in 32 of their last 44 games (+19.45 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Yankees
Braves vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (4-3, 3.91 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (6-3, 3.08 ERA) |
Braves vs Yankees latest injuries
Braves vs Yankees weather
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