The Milwaukee Brewers can increase their seven-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central standings when they meet the St. Louis Cardinals for the finale of this four-game set.
The MLB odds for today’s series finale suggest a Cardinals victory when Brewers southpaw Wade Miley meets Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas this afternoon at 1:10 pm ET.
Can Milwaukee pull off the upset? Find out in our free MLB picks for Brewers vs. Cardinals for Thursday, September 21, 2023.
Brewers vs Cardinals odds
Brewers vs Cardinals predictions
This series has featured plenty of runs, but my best bet is for the game to end Under the 8.5-run total.
Wade Miley has been great for the Milwaukee Brewers, as they're 13-8 when he makes the start. Opposing hitters have batted just .207 against the veteran southpaw this season and he’s done a good job limiting walks. Miley keeps the ball in the yard and — more importantly — gives the first-place Brewers a chance to win games.
The St. Louis Cardinals might have a decent history against Miley, but they haven’t hit lefties very well at all this season. St. Louis has scored the 12th-most runs off left-handed pitching in the NL and has scored a dozen runs over their past five games overall at Busch Stadium.
Miles Mikolas has had an interesting season pitching at Busch Stadium. He’s 2-6 with a 5.48 ERA and is coming off a rough outing against the Phillies. He’s given up 19 earned runs over his last 30 innings but allows less than one home run per nine frames in the home jersey.
The Cardinals righty has more wins against the Brewers than he has against any other MLB team. This collection of Brewers slashes 246./279./385./664 with four home runs and 32 hits over 130 career at-bats against Mikolas. The Brewers haven’t hit Mikolas well and scored the 12th-most runs in the NL this season as the away team.
Finally, neither team has a dependable offense. Miley has been terrific on the road this season and Mikolas has pitched extremely well against the Brewers in general and particularly well against the current Milwaukee bats. Expect both trends to continue this afternoon and for this game to end Under the total.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)
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Brewers vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Under 8.5 (-105)
Josh Donaldson Under 0.5 hits (+151)
In addition to the Under, I really like Josh Donaldson Under 0.5 hits at +151 this afternoon.
Donaldson has had an interesting season. He has 22 hits on the year, but 12 of them have been big bombs like the one he cracked last night. Otherwise, he’s batting .159 and .143 against right-handed pitching this season.
Although the sample size is small, Mikolas has dominated Donaldson over their career. He has one hit and two strikeouts over eight at-bats and I believe he goes hitless today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Brewers vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I like the Under today quite a bit, but here are some additional notes for you to consider for today’s ballgame.
Milwaukee is 10-1 over Miley’s last 11 starts against the NL Central, and the Brewers are 6-1 in Miley’s last seven away starts as the underdog. St. Louis is 7-1 this season in their previous eight games during Game 4 of a four-game series.
Miley receives an average of 5.59 runs of support per start. Meanwhile, the Cardinals stake Mikolas’ 4.16 runs per start.
The Under is 2-7-0 over their previous nine meetings this season.
During the second half of the season, the Brewers bullpen has the lowest xFIP (3.66) in the NL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals bullpen ranks seventh in xFIP (4.29).
Milwaukee holds a 5-4 season series edge and is 3-3 at Busch Stadium this season.
Trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Brewers' last six games after allowing two runs or fewer in their previous game, and the Under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinal's last five home games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals
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Brewers vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, September 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest |
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (8-4, 3.38 ERA): Miley has pitched well on the road for Milwaukee this season. He’s allowed nine earned runs with 14 punchouts over his previous 25 away innings. Miley still has good command — walks 2.98 per nine — and his road opponents are batting .207 against the veteran southpaw this season.
Miles Mikolas (7-12, 4.84 ERA): Mikolas has had shaky results at Busch Stadium this season. He’s surrendered 19 earned runs with 15 strikeouts during his last 30 home frames. Mikolas walks 3.89 hitters and the opponents are batting .282 against the veteran righty at home this season.
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