The first installment of this three-game NL Central series gets underway Monday evening with the second-place Chicago Cubs hosting the first-place Milwaukee Brewers.
This series is incredibly important in the divisional race as the season is winding down and Chicago trailing by just four games.
With MLB odds positioning the Cubs as short home favorites, can the Brewers pull off the upset? Find out in my free MLB picks and predictions for the Brewers vs Cubs on Monday, August 28.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs predictions
Left-hander Wade Miley takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he should be a good candidate to fade.
Through 17 starts this season, Miley owns a 3.18 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are strong, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. The left-hander ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Specifically, we are going to fade Miley in the strikeout department, as he ranks in 23rd percentile or lower in K%, Whiff%, and chase rate. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 at BetRivers, a total he has failed to surpass in nine of his past 14 starts.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, whose hitting has kept their season afloat — ranking in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, and OPS.
Looking at Monday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K-rate south of 23% this season. Through 83 career plate appearances against Miley, this current Chicago lineup possesses a mere 19.3 K%.
Over his past seven starts against the Cubs, the left-hander owns a modest 4.17 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of those seven outings.
My best bet: Wade Miley Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay
Wade Miley Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Over 9
Cubs moneyline
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
While Miley should be a good fade candidate, right-hander Jameson Taillon is also likely to struggle for the Cubs. Through 23 starts this season, Taillon is 7-8 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 15th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. With that said, a high-scoring shootout should benefit the Cubs, a team that paces the Brewers in every single hitting category across the board.
There have now been nine or more total runs scored in each of the Brewers’ past six games, and in six of Chicago’s past seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Brewers vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as a -120 favorite and have since been bet up to their current price of -124. This small line movement should not be shocking given that Chicago boasts the stronger lineup in what is likely to be a high-scoring affair.
That brings us to the total, which opened at nine and has since stayed put. This number should stay here considering Miley’s strong surface-level stats. However, I believe the Over is offering value based on Miley's poor underlying metrics.
Both teams are in great form, so a high-scoring, competitive matchup is likely in store on Monday evening.
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Trend to know
Miley has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in nine of his past 14 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, August 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (6-3, 3.18 ERA): Miley’s strong surface-level stats mask a below-average pitcher who has been over-delivering. His underlying metrics suggest that regression is likely, which could come to fruition against a strong Cubs lineup that has been in great form. This regression has started to creep in recently for the left-hander, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his past two starts.
Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.60 ERA): Taillon is also likely to endure some tough times in this matchup. With that said, as a former member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the right-hander has plenty of experience against the Brew Crew. Over his past nine starts against Milwaukee, Taillon owns a 3.42 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
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